ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile
ToffCap

@toffcap

Fund manager. Looking at LOTS of companies and sharing ideas | No advice, just opinions | Free Research and Event-Driven ideas at toffcap.substack.com

ID: 1296685619104620544

linkhttp://toffcap.substack.com calendar_today21-08-2020 05:48:52

2,2K Tweet

12,12K Takipçi

461 Takip Edilen

Conor Maguire | Value Situations (@valuesituations) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Ahead of $OCI.NV call on OCI Methanol sale to $MX $MX.TO $MEOH, Methanex released interesting presentation on the deal, providing PF valuation - at $350/ton methanol prices, OCIM EBITDA is ~$245m/$275m pre/post- synergies, so 8.4x/7.5x multiple Implies StubCo PF EBITDA of ~$250m

Ahead of $OCI.NV call on OCI Methanol sale to $MX $MX.TO $MEOH, Methanex released interesting presentation on the deal, providing PF valuation - at $350/ton methanol prices, OCIM EBITDA is ~$245m/$275m pre/post- synergies, so 8.4x/7.5x multiple
Implies StubCo PF EBITDA of ~$250m
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Every now and then Opera $OPRA comments start filling my feed, and I know what time it is... #alwaysthesamestory (just joking here, pls $OPRA fans don't go after me...)

Every now and then Opera $OPRA comments start filling my feed, and I know what time it is...

#alwaysthesamestory

(just joking here, pls $OPRA fans don't go after me...)
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Talen $TLN recently increased its buyback to $1.25bn. They've bought back ~14% of s/o so far. What an absolute beast. We highlighted $TLN regularly in our Toffcap Monday Monitor, our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. Find it ToffCap (no paywall)

Talen $TLN recently increased its buyback to $1.25bn.

They've bought back ~14% of s/o so far.

What an absolute beast.

We highlighted $TLN regularly in our Toffcap Monday Monitor, our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. Find it <a href="/ToffCap/">ToffCap</a> (no paywall)
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Its ✅ that 99% of Fintwit is long term oriented (though probably just a fraction is truly LT focussed). But in my experience there's a very big market in just focusing and trading around quarterly results and helping others do that. I have a few ideas in the drawer to provide

ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

There we go. Westaim $WED $WEDXF comleted the sale of its remaining interest in Skyward. $79m to be added on the cash balance. If you're interested in investments with a VERY protected downside, I suggest you take a look 👇

ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Good sign to see insiders stepping up at Xperi $XPER 👇 There's some execution risk, but we're watching this one closely. As mentioned, there's a reasonable scenario for $100m+ ebitda in a few years, putting the company at roughly 3.5x ev/ebitda on FY24e b/s, for >20% ebitda

Good sign to see insiders stepping up at Xperi $XPER 👇

There's some execution risk, but we're watching this one closely. 

As mentioned, there's a reasonable scenario for $100m+ ebitda in a few years, putting the company at roughly 3.5x ev/ebitda on FY24e b/s, for &gt;20% ebitda
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Looks like another very decent quarter from ADF $DRX 👌 Despite revenues being hit by a client delay (-$35m), profitability continued to improve at an impressive pace. - Q2 revenues $75m, -7% yoy (though +37% yoy incl. revenues pushed forward) - Gross margins at a whopping

Looks like another very decent quarter from ADF $DRX 👌

Despite revenues being hit by a client delay (-$35m), profitability continued to improve at an impressive pace.

- Q2 revenues $75m, -7% yoy (though +37% yoy incl. revenues pushed forward) 
- Gross margins at a whopping
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Interesting Trupanion $TRUP write-up from Joe Frankenfield in their recent Q2 letter. We have this one on the watchlist for some time as it plays into strong secular trends and has the potential to become a very good compounder.

Interesting Trupanion $TRUP write-up from <a href="/SagaPartners/">Joe Frankenfield</a> in their recent Q2 letter.

We have this one on the watchlist for some time as it plays into strong secular trends and has the potential to become a very good compounder.
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So ADF $DRX is down on what are imo good results, particularly on profitability. Lets discuss a few 'issues' that could be the reason for the correction👇 1. Yoy revenue decline in Q2, as a large client is facing some delays, and so ADF. While not nice that it happens, this is

ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Quite a few DMs regarding ADF $DRX's price action. I have discussed my view 👇 and will not keep repeating it, but I will add a few points. THE question that should be assessed is: 'has the cycle turned and are the fundamentals falling off a cliff?' Because that's what the

ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

We started doing some work on renewable energy equipment company Shoals Technologies $SHLS. Shoals has been suffering from project pushbacks as end-markets deteriorated and the green energy hype of the past years dissipated. As a consequence, the share share price has been

We started doing some work on renewable energy equipment company Shoals Technologies $SHLS. 

Shoals has been suffering from project pushbacks as end-markets deteriorated and the green energy hype of the past years dissipated. 

As a consequence, the share share price has been
ToffCap (@toffcap) 's Twitter Profile Photo

You’ve got to appreciate the wisdom of Fintwit. On the way up, everyone is an expert. On the way down, everyone saw the 🚩