Some thoughts from us on $AMD yesterday

From the TMT Breakout email newsletter on The Information's Oracle piece today. It's almost as if when you're building a new restaurant, profit margins are bad until you open the restaurant. This is basic, basic stuff.🤦‍♂️

$AMD: Why the risk/reward was so juicy in low $200s We pitched $AMD long Thursday to TMTB subs and got lucky. But then we added on Monday, writing this: The math we are focused on here is that $10 EPS number in ‘27, which seems like a very solid base case here (a lot think

I have to say that a subscription to TMT Breakout is an absolute no-brainer. Excellent tech news / fundamentals coverage. Better than any sell-side note I have ever received including all tech specialist coverage and, on par, with my analyst team morning notes from when I ran a

Great Bg2 Pod pod with Satya Nadella and Sam Altman Key quotes: Brad: “If you were doing in excess of $100B of revenue in 2028 or 2029, you’d be positioned to IPO around $1T…” Sam: How about 2027? … --- Satya: “Absolutely $MSFT's Azure could have grown ~41–42% if we’d had

Too many things going on to not subscribe to TMT Breakout No brainer

JT TMT Breakout second this. Even though I get research and spec sales comments from every bank TMT Breakout is one of my favorite resources. Chat is a+

Never good when a company speaks in riddles in their earnings PR $DASH -20%: ""We wish there was a way to grow a baby into an adult without investment, or to see the baby grow into an adult overnight, but we do not believe this is how life or business works." A real quote

I DIED LAUGHING at this ending. Satya Nadella on AI demand and why they are leasing from neoclouds: "It’s fine for us because now when you have line of sight to demand." Satya on how great Nvidia is (lolol): "the thing that is the biggest competitor for any new accelerator is

Kioxia signing an LTA with Apple right before spot prices went vertical is a little funny. Apple is so good at managing their DRAM and NAND exposure.

The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears -- how Sam's Splurge changed everything The worst kept secret among Tech market participants — just something AI bulls don’t admit out loud: they want a price-action bubble every bit as much as the bears do. Both want to see

One thing I forgot to mention in the "non-bubble" piece is that this paradigm shift in the AI trade is also happening at the same another is occurring: the likely plateau of chat-bot functionality. The rate of change in improvements in models will likely be increasingly seen in

Welcome to the ASS period: pnl leaking, spreads widening, and a bit of a pain to sit through.

$GOOGL's Gemini 3 pricing is an under-rated and important point for a couple reasons. First the obvious: big flex by $GOOGL as it signals they know they have the best model. Second, Google—historically the aggressive pricer trying to undercut OpenAI—is now positioning itself

Part 2: The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears: How Gemini 3 changed everything (again!) Last week, we wrote how we were undergoing a new paradigm shift in the AI trade after Sam’s Splurge, with increasing questions and scrutiny versus the first 3 years of the

Gerstner: "ChatGPT has re-accelerated" to 900M WAUs...unclear how up to date that is and if it includes latest week since post-G3, but not a bad sign. h/t JT

$MRVL Bull vs. Bear Debate Bulls love the way mgmt has de‑risked the near‑term custom story and then layered on big optionality. Custom AI ASIC revenue was weak q/q this quarter, but mgmt explicitly reiterated at least 20% growth in FY27, no air pockets, and a doubling of custom