Bots on MoltBook build their own bots on Polymarket and entered the market They analyze markets, generate hypotheses, write code, come up with strategies, and test them in real tim. The result isn't impressive so far - no successful stories yet None of their strategies became

Bots on Polymarket also use the Kelly Criterion - it's one of their key modules Arbitrage bots apply the Kelly Criterion to dynamically adjust bet sizes based on perceived edge and current bankroll On GitHub you can find open source bots where kelly is often a separate module

How bots on Polymarket use the Kelly Criterion Kelly Criterion is a separate module in the architecture of trading bots How it works at the code level: The bot gets two inputs: the market price of the contract market price and its own probability estimate "true_prob" The

Bot made 63,500% in 1 day on Bitcoin Up or Down - 15 min on Polymarket It's only 4 days old and already managed to get $100,000 in profit That's $1000+ per hour As soon as the new window for faster trading opened, bots immediately started money printing Bot profile:

Why you won't be able to launch an arbitrage bot on Polymarket using ClawdBot Execution speed: The arbitrage window is rapidly shrinking execution time has been compressed to under 30ms due to competition. For a working bot like this, code alone isn't enough - most of these

Math and real probabilities on 5-min markets always > emotions "buy the cheap side" strategy relies on the favorite-longshot bias Market participants systematically overpay for favorites and overestimate the chances of underdogs as impossible outcomes People cognitively

New era of AI agents awaits us because the creator of OpenClaw has joined OpenAI Sam Altman hired him and personally supports his product Just imagine what agents will be able to do in the near future with OpenAI's capabilities What will Steinberger do at OpenAI? Sam Altman

Experimenting with manipulation on 5-min BTC UP or Down on Polymarket This gives a chance to earn 20x profit I've been watching the 5-minute charts and realized the outcome is often manipulated In the last second, the outcome jumps from 1c to 100c So I thought, what if I

Results of the manipulation experiment on 5-min BTC up or down on Polymarket I tracked 20 bets in a row and only placed them at specific moments: When the price fluctuated around the target +- $30 I waited for the last seconds and placed a limit order But all 20 bets would

Points to succeed on 5-15min markets I've been actively testing different approaches to trading these markets, and here's what I noticed: 1. Holding a position until the end = mistake 3 times yesterday, there was a spike in the last second and my position closed in the red

1 minute delay on 5-min markets - advantage or disadvantage? Polymarket uses Chainlink for 5-minute price updates That's why you might have seen unexpected situations where your position got wrecked at the last moment But this could have been avoided by watching the Chainlink

Point of the new Polymarket feature: sponsoring market rewards Trading will become more accurate and more liq The new feature is designed to reward LPs You basically put in your money so the order book has enough funds for buying and selling in large size This will be useful

Cross arbitrage between 5-15 min BTC Up or Down markets Noticed an interesting case I want to share here When a 15-minute market has 5 minutes left until close, a new 5 min market opens If the price is moving around the target +-$5, an arbitrage opportunity basically opens up

Fast copytrading on Polymarket guide in video You can start copying trades conveniently 1. Use telegram trading bot from Kreo: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… 2. Go to the Copy Trade tab, click "Add Task" 3. Select your wallet 4. Paste the address of who you want to copy, give

Polymarket launched new 5-min markets! Liquidity is still low on these markets and odds are unstable. But I'm sure the situation will stabilize within the next few hours. More and more trading combinations > Xrp 5 min - polymarket.com/event/xrp-updo… > Eth 5 min -

Google overtakes Anthropic because of one post 9 days left - can Google pull off another win? Polymarket "Which company has the best AI model end of February?" LLM arena also unchanged > claude-opus-4.6: 1504 Score > gemini-3 pro: 1487 Score Claude held first place on

Anthropic held first place after the release of Gemini 3.1 Pro In 1 hour, Anthropic shares jumped from 50% to 86% Google released a new version of Gemini "New SOTA model across most reasoning, coding, and stem use cases" Like I wrote in the last post, because of 1 tweet, the