(1/5) Fertility Rate map of Earth in 2024.

The lawsuit challenging India’s rapid implementation of #E20 is already set for a Supreme Court hearing tomorrow (Sept. 1), just two weeks after being filed. This lightning-fast judicial review of a #biofuels case is unimaginable in the US. #ethanol

We’ve published an update of the global sugar balance. ▪️2nd highest global sugar production on record possible. ▪️Global sugar consumption flat (i.e. falling per capita). Gives a 6.2m tonne surplus for 25/26 season.

Another look at Brazilian sugar & ethanol prices. They are now virtually identical (on a No.11 basis). Since my original tweet below, cane mills in Centre-South Brazil have recorded a 55% sugar mix in H1 Aug, the strongest fortnightly production mix to sugar this century 🧐

#CommodityRoundup | कपिल नेमा, शुगर इंडस्ट्री एक्सपर्ट - चीनी पर GST की दर घटने से इंडस्ट्री को फायदा। - ग्रामीण इलाकों में मांग बढ़ने की उम्मीद है। - GST की दर कम होने से एथेनॉल का उत्पादन बढ़ेगा। - अभी 1700 करोड़ लीटर की उत्पादन क्षमता, खपत 1200 करोड़ लीटर है। Kapil Nema

We've written an update on the GLP-1 drug market on CZ App. 2026 is a big year: Ozempic's patent protection expires in India, China, Brazil and Canada. Cheaper and more widely available biosimilar generics could become available in these countries.

🧐

Brazil has extended patent protection for liraglutide, a GLP-1 drug, for an additional 8 years. Novo Nordisk is seeking an extension for semaglutide (Ozempic) too. Its patent protection expires in Brazil next year.

Novo Nordisk being hit by more effective GLP-1 drugs than Ozempic, and also the risk of cheaper generics. More availability & cheaper prices are not good news for Novo, but they are good news for people with obesity. Interesting implications for global sugar consumption.

While the world's central banks have been cutting rates, Brazil's central bank has hiked. This is really remarkable. Brazil's policy rate is now ABOVE where it was during the post-COVID inflation shock, when the then Governor of BACEN came under lots of pressure to cut rates...

For only the second time in the past 20 years, there are more end-user hedges than producer hedges in the raw sugar market. This kind of market positioning is quite extreme and may not be long-lived.

Computer says no! EU deforestation regulation to be delayed by one year - once again - due to "serious capaicity concerns regarding the IT system given projected load" the commission said today

The new COFCO terminal at Santos Port in Brazil has had a remarkable effect on the amount of time raw sugar vessels wait to berth. Probably helped by weak demand for sugar this year too, but still...

Also not on my 2025 bingo card:

I'm aware the y-axis of this chart is a crime (I must mention to the editorial team), but the message is clear.

We've updated our global sugar balances, and included a first look at the 26/27 season. ▪️25/26 surplus remains large, at 7.4m tonnes. ▪️26/26 in small surplus of 4.4m tonnes. 25/26 N.Hemi crops about to start, so figures likely to change as more data comes in.

For one of the last times… I’ll miss St Paul’s when we move.