@brittajewell Because the spread is *exponential* the timing of mitigation is important. @brittajewell’s team showed that starting interventions 2 weeks earlier could reduce deaths by 90%. The actual *number* of deaths here is not the focus (& are based on old #s) but rather the % reduction

@NP_Jewell is now on, discussing the discrepency between case fatality rate and infection fatality rate: CFR: numerator: number of #COVID19 deaths denominator: # of confirmed cases IFR: numerator: number of #COVID19 deaths denominator: total # of cases (both detected and not)

@NP_Jewell @brittajewell Comparing the Naive Case Fatality Ratio across populations is problematic without adjusting for: 👴 age distribution 🤧 co-morbitidies 💊 treatement differences 🏥 hospital utilization 🕑 stage in the epidemic

@NP_Jewell @brittajewell A better metric is *excess mortality* ☝️ estimate how many deaths we *would have seen* without #COVID19 ✌️ compare to what we are seeing now

@NP_Jewell @brittajewell @NP_Jewell describes exactly why epidemic projection is so challenging for statisticians: “If you’ve seen one epidemic, you’ve seen one epidemic"

@NP_Jewell outlines issues with the widely used IHME model including: *️⃣ intial “curve fitting” approach rather than epidemiological mathematical model (now a hybrid is used) *️⃣ inaccurate uncertainty estimates doi.org/10.7326/M20-15…

@NP_Jewell "You can’t solve the economic crisis without addressing the public health crisis” - @NP_Jewell

@NP_Jewell @brittajewell We have time for one question: What is going to happen as we open elementary schools, high schools, and colleges❓: @brittajewell: it is almost mathematically impossible to think that there will not be increased infections if we are increase interactions

@NP_Jewell: There are 11 million college students in the US - 11 million people traveling is a real threat for virus spread. Very few colleges are set up to handle this appropriately.

#JSM2020 Looking forward to this: Eugenics and Its Intersection with Statistics and Society Over Time: A Conversation amstat-jsm.conferencecontent.net/session/220176

Studies show we have a tough time conceptualizing percentages. Is there a better way to illustrate risk and uncertainty? Science journalist Regina Nuzzo presents "Brain-Hacking Stats Communication: A Quick Tour" at #Zelen2020. Event details: bit.ly/Zelen20.

We are stat professors with the American Statistical Association, and we’re thrilled to talk to you about the statistics behind voting. Ask us anything! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/13/we-…

TODAY 11 am ET: Reddit AMA on the statistics behind voting! 🗳️ Featuring Mary Gray from American U and Andrew Gelman Andrew Gelman et al. from Columbia U Comments are pouring in already: reddit.com/r/politics/com… ASA

Stats students: Interested in writing for broad audiences? I encourage you to apply! American Stationery sponsors a special AAAS Mass Media Fellowship for a person with substantial training in stats. Past ASA/AAAS Mass Media Fellows have written for Slate, STAT News & NPR. #statstwitter

Great video by Miles O'Brien PBS News of Philip Stark showing how stats can give us confidence in election results. Risk-limiting audits are amazingly powerful! (Bonus: a peek into Phil's famous wild-food-foraging kitchen)

My new podcast, Normal Curves, is out! Regina Nuzzo and I discuss scientific studies and statistics with humor, clarity, and a dash of PG-13 content. Think journal club, but less jargon and more fun! normalcurves.com #Statistics #ScienceCommunication #StatisticalSleuthing

Is alcohol really good for your heart? Regina Nuzzo and I discuss this question in our latest episode of Normal Curves. bit.ly/AlcoholHeart Stats topics include: regression, residual confounding, multiple testing, outcome switching, and Mendelian randomization

So happy to discover hookworms made it to a great science podcast! open.spotify.com/episode/1U8U9X…

New Normal Curves podcast episode! "HPV Vaccine: How close are we to wiping out cervical cancer?" Great statistics lesson on disease modeling predictions with microsimulations, plus much more!