$KWEB

I’m going to keep harping on this one—solar is so very under owned Cheaper than coal and nat gas in most places in the states, relatively undervalued and strong momentum. If they decide to start seriously tapping this for data centers…

Initial jobless claims feels like a much less noisy measure of the labor market rn. Still at benign levels

Typically, recessions result once “everything” is booming. When all the components comprising the economy simultaneously do well, it suggests broad-based overextension and excess, making the overall sustainability of the economic expansion suspect. Conversely, when an economic

With much lower expected immigration for 2025, I now estimate breakeven employment growth has fallen to a range between 32,000 and 82,000 jobs per month. stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…

A fleeting though I had as I fell asleep last night: Command economies don’t have recessions on paper, but inflation can erode quality of life just as much. Kind of like a shadow recession

Bc more buyers than sellers

The economy is still robust ICYMI we had another strong month for retail sales

History is not "just one damn thing after another," British historian Arnold Toynbee once quipped in response to a critic. For a long time, Toynbee's opinion was in the minority. Historians and philosophers, including famous ones like Karl Popper, vehemently insisted that a

Fed projections show 9 of 19 officials see two additional cuts in 2025, two see one cut, six see no more reductions.

Powell as a risk manager: Risks are shifting from inflation to employment and the cut is somewhat anticipatory of labor weakness. Powell literally called today’s cut a “risk management cut,” which I really appreciate and gives him and the CB the flexibility appropriate for the

Time for a correction in stocks folks

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Quantum stocks are cracking Equities broadly are getting closer to a corrective period. Maybe sometime next week it will start

Keep your heads on a swivel folks

5-10% correction incoming I had a 1,000 word post drafted that I was planning to send this weekend detailing the conditions that might start the correction, though Trump tweets weren’t on the bingo card As a force of nature, sometimes the market just needs a reset and it can

Feels like this is going to end up being more of a choppy rotation than a full blown correction Good to see the most speculative corners of the market like quantum and SPACs cool off