RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile
RiverRoadPartners

@partners_road

Hedge fund manager. Bring any short idea; focus on frauds and fads. River Road Partners is a made up name for X, by the way, so don’t bother.

ID: 1357867720407154689

calendar_today06-02-2021 01:45:00

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Kelvin MacKenzie (@kelvmackenzie) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I find it unpardonable that Ryanair has refused to refund Stephen Crean , 61, who couldn’t take a flight to Austria to watch his beloved Nottingham Forest due to his mutiple knife injuries incurred courageously saving the lives of passengers on that Huntington train. Ryanair

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Friend had a hybrid LO equity/private equity fund specializing in IT services cos that had v high (90%+) recurring revenue. That was the primary test. Yrs of top-rank performance followed. An index of cos that meet that test is down 13% YTD. May be an opportunity in this sector.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Purely looking at macro factor models, you can get a good sense of what is top of mind re: macro concerns. Those are: 1) monetary policy expectations, 2) surprises in consumer spending data, & 3) exposures to global trade Lack of explicit political concerns is interesting l.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The leftist columnists at Bloomberg are on full tilt this morning, whining about how the Democrats caved to Trump and how the boomers own all the real estate and won’t give them any. It’s a mini Pravda over there and the entitlement is hilariously off-key as usual.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Macro hedge fund Rokos Capital Management has extended its year-to-date returns after an uptick in October. The hedge fund rose 3.8% in October, extending its 2025 gains to 21%, according to people familiar with the matter. Chris has such an incredible feel for markets.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Always trying to understand the odds in any situation, but one “bet” consistently has 100% odds, and that is that Chuck Schumer will overplay his hand and ultimately lose on every issue he makes a stand on.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Looking over a group of different IB chats from today & stunning how stressed one off-day in the garbage hyperscalers can make otherwise rational investors: “Do you think this is capitulation?” “You’re the 5th person asking me in the last hour, so no, not a chance.”

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Give the extreme consumer fears in the market, I will make the case that Walmart’s earnings next week are more important than NVIDIA’s upcoming print. $WMT $NVDA

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So the $PM meeting. The issue is price gaps. IQOS in Japan is at a 2x-3x price premium, even as JT has markedly improved its competitive offering. Zyn’s @ 60% premium. CEO: “Our quality allows us to command that premium.” And e-vape is commoditizing, w/ JUUL rising. Rough setup.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Never talk to the press. Either for attribution or on background. This applies regardless of whatever field you are in (or if you’re not in any field at all). Ignore this advice at your peril.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Every day closer to Mamdani assuming the Mayoralty of NYC, and with every interview he gives/inexperienced sycophant he appoints to his cabinet, the Puerto Rican banks should gain in value. $BPOP $OFG $FBP

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Fear vs greed (retail) and trying to protect the year by de-grossing/going to the sidelines (professionals). That’s what we see. This is why you bank profits throughout the year - to stay on offense when others have to sell. That is when you get your best entries.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Perhaps the most truthful (and important) saying in financial markets: “The income statement is your past, the balance sheet is your future.” The best investors never forget this.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Barclays report on $PM & Zyn is stunning: Q1 ‘25 rev per can was $3.50. Q3 ‘25 rev per can was $2.40. Of 206M cans shipped in Q3, ~15% shipped for free (EBIT loss of $4 per can). No Q4 ‘25 promos yet, but Velo is still taking share & discounting. The pouch price war continues.

RiverRoadPartners (@partners_road) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The top story on Bloomberg - literal top of the page - is a guy downgrading Microsoft and Amazon. Clearly the world is now ending.