I find it unpardonable that Ryanair has refused to refund Stephen Crean , 61, who couldn’t take a flight to Austria to watch his beloved Nottingham Forest due to his mutiple knife injuries incurred courageously saving the lives of passengers on that Huntington train. Ryanair

To be more specific, they were chanting “TAX MY DAD!”

Friend had a hybrid LO equity/private equity fund specializing in IT services cos that had v high (90%+) recurring revenue. That was the primary test. Yrs of top-rank performance followed. An index of cos that meet that test is down 13% YTD. May be an opportunity in this sector.

Purely looking at macro factor models, you can get a good sense of what is top of mind re: macro concerns. Those are: 1) monetary policy expectations, 2) surprises in consumer spending data, & 3) exposures to global trade Lack of explicit political concerns is interesting l.

Excellent point.

The leftist columnists at Bloomberg are on full tilt this morning, whining about how the Democrats caved to Trump and how the boomers own all the real estate and won’t give them any. It’s a mini Pravda over there and the entitlement is hilariously off-key as usual.

Macro hedge fund Rokos Capital Management has extended its year-to-date returns after an uptick in October. The hedge fund rose 3.8% in October, extending its 2025 gains to 21%, according to people familiar with the matter. Chris has such an incredible feel for markets.

Always trying to understand the odds in any situation, but one “bet” consistently has 100% odds, and that is that Chuck Schumer will overplay his hand and ultimately lose on every issue he makes a stand on.

Post-earnings shout out to the $MTSI CEO Steve Daly and his entire team. Best management group in the semiconductor space.

Looking over a group of different IB chats from today & stunning how stressed one off-day in the garbage hyperscalers can make otherwise rational investors: “Do you think this is capitulation?” “You’re the 5th person asking me in the last hour, so no, not a chance.”

Give the extreme consumer fears in the market, I will make the case that Walmart’s earnings next week are more important than NVIDIA’s upcoming print. $WMT $NVDA

So the $PM meeting. The issue is price gaps. IQOS in Japan is at a 2x-3x price premium, even as JT has markedly improved its competitive offering. Zyn’s @ 60% premium. CEO: “Our quality allows us to command that premium.” And e-vape is commoditizing, w/ JUUL rising. Rough setup.

Never talk to the press. Either for attribution or on background. This applies regardless of whatever field you are in (or if you’re not in any field at all). Ignore this advice at your peril.

Every day closer to Mamdani assuming the Mayoralty of NYC, and with every interview he gives/inexperienced sycophant he appoints to his cabinet, the Puerto Rican banks should gain in value. $BPOP $OFG $FBP

Fear vs greed (retail) and trying to protect the year by de-grossing/going to the sidelines (professionals). That’s what we see. This is why you bank profits throughout the year - to stay on offense when others have to sell. That is when you get your best entries.

Perhaps the most truthful (and important) saying in financial markets: “The income statement is your past, the balance sheet is your future.” The best investors never forget this.

Barclays report on $PM & Zyn is stunning: Q1 ‘25 rev per can was $3.50. Q3 ‘25 rev per can was $2.40. Of 206M cans shipped in Q3, ~15% shipped for free (EBIT loss of $4 per can). No Q4 ‘25 promos yet, but Velo is still taking share & discounting. The pouch price war continues.

The top story on Bloomberg - literal top of the page - is a guy downgrading Microsoft and Amazon. Clearly the world is now ending.