The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation, increased 2.6% from a year earlier in June, up from 2.4% in May. Excluding food and energy costs, the “core PCE” rose 2.8%, little changed from the previous month ow.ly/qeTf50Wyefe

The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate increased to 2.68% for the 12 months ending in June, up from 2.57% in May. For more on the Dallas Fed alternative measure of core inflation, see FRED: ow.ly/kW4Z50Wyejr

I think the Friday jobs report told us that the economy is closer to stall speed than we thought. The big deal is the downward revision for the two months before that. That means there is a real possibility that we're in a stall speed kind of economy, which means we could tip

Excellent analysis!

Tariffs are already driving up prices—especially for furniture and household goods. Follow the latest at pricinglab.org/tariff-tracker

Excellent view on tariffs from The Economist Donald Trump thinks he’s winning on trade, but America will lose economist.com/leaders/2025/0…

The daily trade-weighted U.S. dollar index was measuring 112.1 as of Aug. 1 (January 2006=100). You can track this index and other foreign exchange rates from Federal Reserve in FRED: ow.ly/47Us50WzJYh

When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “The Changing World Order” on my YouTube channel to understand how, and what it means

Die absurd hohen US-Zölle treten bis auf weiteres in Kraft, und auch die Pharmaindustrie bleibt unter Druck. Das ist ungerecht. Aber die Schweizer Wirtschaft wird es letztlich verschmerzen – sofern die Politik die richtigen Schlüsse daraus zieht. trib.al/Sxy4y3b

As more reciprocal tariffs take effect, it's worth noting that prices for many retail goods have been steadily rising since March. The increases may seem modest, but they are adding up. See pricinglab.org/tariff-tracker We just updated our paper with an event study showing that—after

Producer price index for final demand—representing the wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services—rose 0.9% in July, following a slight increase in June. In the 12 months ending in July, producer prices were up 3.3% ow.ly/px1550WGRRZ

US tariffs update: Imported goods cost 5% more, domestic goods 3% more than pre-tariff trends predicted. Data now runs through Aug 8 — and we push the history back to Jan 1, 2024 (Appendix), showing a full year of stability before tariffs broke the trend. pricinglab.org/tariff-tracker

Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax

These days, everyone wants low interest rates. So look at Switzerland (green), which has a 30-year yield of 0.5%. How did it get here? Swiss gov't debt is 37% of GDP. Low interest rates are a reward for good fiscal policy. Not something you get by leaning on your central bank...

Post Jackson Hole interest rate markets suggest 3% fed funds bottom in mid-2027. If so then 4% 10 year is a possibility. Still with trillions in supply ahead, 4% is hard to imagine. Stay mildly bearish with expected range of 4.15-4.45 over next few months. Current 4.25% yield is

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📈 BCA’s #ChartoftheWeek! US equities are pricey... but not in bubble territory Our Special Reports Unit Chief Strategist Jonathan LaBerge notes: ⚖️ Bubble indicators show overvaluation, not mania 📊 Growth stock froth eased on earnings strength 📉 Risks: AI narrative shift +

This fall, Anja Hochberg and I are going to teach again “Investment Process in Practice” for Master students UZH Department of Finance. A practitioner lecture with academic foundations covering all aspects of the investment process, and there will be guests. Students: studentservices.uzh.ch/uzh/anonym/vvz…

Public debt is worrying, especially the trend over the last few years!

Big thank-you to Dr. Roger Rüegg, Head Quant Multi-Asset Strategies at Zürcher Kantonalbank/Swisscanto for his great guest presentation about how SAA is derived in practice within our course “Investment Process in Practice – Fundamentals and Applications” UZH Department of Finance