Going into what will almost certainly be a nonexistent Jobs Day...looking at industry patterns of employment suggests further weakness in the labor market 1/

New from me Molly Kinder Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/

We see AI everywhere except in the labor statistics.

Great to be with Squawk Box this morning to talk a jobless jobs day -- and why we really need govt data to understand what is happening in the economy. cnbc.com/video/2025/10/…

I really appreciated the opportunity to talk with Stephanie Ruhle Max Chafkin on 11th Hour last night on the consequences of the shutdown, watch here: msnbc.com/11th-hour/watc…

Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but The Budget Lab is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity

Applications for RA roles at The Budget Lab (and many other great Yale Econ researchers) are now open!

U.S. trade policy has undergone substantial transformation in recent months - joining us on stage to dissect some of these changes are Everett Eissenstat of Squire Patton Boggs, Cecilia Malmström of Peterson Institute and Natasha Sarin of The Budget Lab #IIFinDC

Careers The Budget Lab is live! Looking for RAs and a macro researcher. Please see here: budgetlab.yale.edu/careers

Updated estimates from The Budget Lab on the state of tariffs, incorporating new detail about wood-related tariffs and new data on how imports flow through to domestic consumption: 1/5

I'm still in denial over Ernie Tedeschi leaving The Budget Lab. We owe so much of our success to his contributions. He is as brilliant as he is kind and unbelievably hard-working. We're so lucky he will stay as a fellow--and his future colleagues don't know how lucky they are.

TONIGHT AT 8: Natasha Sarin makes the case that Trump's shaky economy is being propped up by an AI bubble that could burst at any moment. Plus Cameron Kasky and Leah Greenberg says NO KINGS ❌👑 on why Republicans seem so scared of today's nationwide No Kings rally.

In my latest for New York Times Opinion, I examine the rise of private credit -- and what recent auto-related bankruptcies tell us about potential risks to our financial system: nytimes.com/2025/10/27/opi…

Join Josh Barro Natasha Sarin Cristina Rodriguez and Eric Van Nostrand for a The Budget Lab webinar on democratic institutions and economic growth - link below:

Register for the next The Budget Lab webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth" on Wed. November 12 at noon. yale.zoom.us/webinar/regist… Panel moderated by Josh Barro with: Cristina Rodriguez, Deputy Dean and Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor of Law,

So great to be with NPR All Things Considered on risks building up in the private credit market. Listen here: npr.org/transcripts/nx…

New update from The Budget Lab on the state of tariffs. Included are: (1) Today's China deal cutting "fentanyl" IEEPA tariffs (2) Heavy vehicle tariffs going into effect tomorrow (3) Some technical tweaks on how we calculate ETRs [1/4]

Former Biden Treasury Official Natasha Sarin and Former Trump Economic Advisor Stephen Moore discuss the battle over health care costs: cnb.cx/47kK2tg