This is pretty wild, but consumer expectations have only been lower than this 3% of the time since 1967, and most of that was during the GFC. Just look where this series was at the beginning of the year! Something changed expectations for consumers, and I'm guessing it's tariffs.

A lot is being made of today's poor GDP print, but it was not really a surprise given the sudden rise we've seen in volatility, which is a great leading indicator of economic activity. Given the severity and speed of the spike it suggests further downside ahead. Stay tuned!

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Nearly 2,500 investors start their week with Macro Monday. Why aren't you one of them? Macro Monday is the best place to stay current during these extremely volatile economic times. The best part? It's completely FREE! Subscribe: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/subscribe

📈 𝐏𝐫𝐞-𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 📉 The big event this week is the FOMC meeting, which could prove consequential for markets. The Fed is unlikely to take any action, but their commentary could prove market moving. Read Here: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/chairman-pow…

"You see, at first when someone says let's impose tariffs on foreign imports it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And, sometimes for a short while it works, BUT only for a short time." youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WB…

While you're waiting for the Fed decision in 90 minutes, check out this video from Ryan Hartung outlining the Fed's thought process. Great primer for what you can expect moving forward! youtube.com/watch?v=c9_bXL…

WOW. Just wrote Macro Monday. There's a LOT of data. NFIB, CPI, PPI, Regional Fed Indices, Retail Sales, IP, NAHB, Housing Starts, and Michigan Sentiment. Want help staying on top of it all? Macro Monday is the place. Best part? It's FREE! Subscribe 👇 themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/subscribe

This week's data reveals crucial insights into inflation momentum, with regional PMIs, CPI, PPI, and key economic sentiment indicators set to provide a comprehensive market outlook. Too much to track? Macro Monday has got you covered! Read Here: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/did-powell-s…

Had the pleasure of sitting down with Rob Langrick a few weeks ago to discuss the new Practical Macro Module coming to the CFA Program. During our conversation, Rob and I had a discussion on the current economic backdrop that was too good not to share! youtube.com/watch?v=tFGoGh…

This has very timely data and stats. By timely I am referring to April's CPI release, which some viewed as a sign that tariffs are not inflationary. The paper focuses on washing machine tariffs imposed on in January of 2018. Here are the key elements 👇 aeaweb.org/research/washi…

There's been a lot of conversation on the divergence between soft data and hard data, as soft data calls for a spike in inflation and unemployment. For those unfamiliar, Ryan Hartung made a great explainer video to get you up to speed. Check it out 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=0KRyXz…

Went back to look at our 2025 Outlook Call in light of the Moody's downgrade. "Successive U.S. administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Going to need to update the table!

🚨 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚, 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬! 🚨 Is inflation set to spike? In this Macro Monday we diving into key forward-looking inflation proxies and what they mean for the economy. Read Macro Monday Below 👇👇👇 themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/soft-data-st…

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While Moody's downgrade is unlikely to have a short-term market impact, it signals we're moving in the wrong direction. Here I break down the fiscal environment leading to the downgrade and discuss why the "Big, Beautiful Bill" certainly isn't helping. youtube.com/watch?v=ar903n…

Well, Ryan Hartung has certainly been busy! Another video! It's the second part of the video out yesterday. This time Ryan discusses the top four implications of the recent U.S. credit downgrade. Check it out below 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=Dd6qVH…

"Never a dull week. Wednesday’s weak treasury auction and Thursday’s release of details on the 'Big, Beautiful Bill' pushed the 10-Year to 4.6%. Further out on the curve, the yield on the 30-Year has risen from 4.4% on Liberation Day to 5.1%." Read More: themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/who-pays-the…

📊 𝐁𝐢𝐠 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 ISM PMIs, NAHB labor trends, and the April payrolls report all land this week. The 𝐈𝐒𝐌 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 continues to point to 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲, 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝-𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐛 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡. No signs of recessionary cracks ... yet.

🚨 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 🚨 We’re looking at a goldmine of leading indicators: ISM and Markit PMIs, NAHB labor report, and April payrolls all drop this week. Predicting monthly payrolls is more art than science, but broader trends speak volumes. themacroinstitute.beehiiv.com/p/a-big-week-f…