🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

Getting there fast.

Retail doesn’t seem to have capitulated yet. Here is a few signs: - When serious deleveraging occurs and margin calls hit, literally any asset gets sold to raise cash and meet these margin calls. Gold is a very institutionalized asset class and on Friday it showed some signs of

In 3 months, the S&P 500 (Friday close for the futures contract: 5110) will be:

Thanks for the big turnout in the previous poll - now a more interesting one. By the end of the year (Dec 2025), the S&P500 will be:

Yes, the Fed could easily backstop the next potential unwind of leveraged bond trades. But the Fed would have a hard time stopping Bond Vigilantes if they really showed up. You should have 10-year Treasuries at 5% on your bingo card - just in case.

Over the next two weeks, tariffs on China will be suspended because Xi and Trump are actively negotiating:

In the recent past, US fiscal stimulus was always welcomed friendly by markets: stocks up & USD up, and bonds never out of control. I wonder if the next US fiscal stimulus could wake up the Bond Vigilantes instead?

Quick reminder - Market thinks you don’t have fiscal space and your policymaking sucks (e.g. UK, EMs): fiscal stimulus = bad for your currency - Market thinks you are fiscally prudent and run by decent policymakers (e.g. Germany): fiscal stimulus = good for your currency

The Polymarket odds for Trump and DOGE to cut 250bn+ of spending in 2025 are now below 5%. Fiscal detox my a*s