3/ The May divergence between the two surveys has become extremely large: Payroll employment +4,800 and resident employment -7,100, which is as large a divergence as has been seen for quite a while. These will eventually move closer, but which will prove to be correct?

4/ So the questions are: To what extent is our labor force decline related to national immigration enforcement, and how much is the result of BLS deriving RI estimates from its national model? The US data also has a weakening labor force.

1/ RI Payroll Employment has been rising while resident employment has been falling. An interesting difference for payroll employment: Not seasonally adjusted annual changes have been smaller and have fallen since January, the opposite of that for the seasonally adjusted data.

2/ So, part of the divergence between the two employment series is related to seasonal adjustment (possibly residual seasonality). This promises to make the annual labor data revisions more interesting than usual.

1/ RI economic growth went negative in Q1, consistent with what my Current Conditions Index had shown. 2024Q4 growth +1.9%, Q1 at -0.2%. Ironically, this gave RI a Q1 national ranking of 16. All of the New England states experienced declines in Q1 growth.

2/ For all of 2024, RI's growth rate of +3.2% was tied for the highest rate in New England with New Hampshire.

3/ RI's Q1 growth was aided by construction and durable goods production.

1/ Another perspective on RI payroll employment: Private sector vs. government. Private sector employment growth has been slowing. Since September 2023, it has largely been below that of the government sector.

2/ Couple this with the question of seasonal adjustment effects on the recent trend in RI payroll employment (recent post), and things aren't as rosy as a cursory examination of payroll employment data would suggest.

1/ June labor data had a few interesting twists. On an annual basis, all household survey measures remained bad. Monthly, maybe a glimmer of hope, as resident employment squeaked out a slight gain (+200), while still falling annually. This bears watching.

2/ Changes in the two RI employment measures had diverged, with resident employment falling for several months while payroll employment rose. That changed in June as payroll fell. Again, one month only. Eventually, changes in the two series can be expected to converge.

3/ Interestingly, RI payroll employment was revised slightly lower for May, so weakness in that employment measure might not just be a one-month phenomenon. But the cardinal rule: Never place too much weight on data for a single period.

4/ FYI: The participation-adjusted unemployment rate for RI rose to 6.4 percent in June, as both the labor force participation rate and the employment rate fell (again!).

Another disturbing labor market trend in Rhode Island: Continuing UI claims continue to rise. It's getting increasingly difficult to find jobs here, as the similar uptrend in benefit exhaustions further illustrates.

An interesting chart: Real average hourly earnings for the private sector in Rhode Island. Essentially flat since 2023. Consistent with moderating or slowing growth.

RI's employment rate (resident employment as a percent of population 16+) has not done well since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and recently has continued to weaken.

1/ RI's July labor market data are somewhat confusing. Household survey shows annual weakness, but some monthly strength, perhaps a bottom. Payroll employment has resumed gains both monthly and annually. There is a complicating factor .....

2/ Contrasting seasonally adjusted (SA) annual household data with not seasonally adjusted (NSA), a different picture emerges. For NSA, both employment loss and the change in the number of unemployed is smaller. And, drum roll please - the unemployment rate is unchanged annually.

3/ This suggests that, in addition to all the other potentially complicating factors with RI labor market data, seasonal adjustment is emerging as a potential concern. The "tea leaves" just got more opaque!

I just saw a report by ETQ noting that RI lost 43.9% of its manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2024, and manufacturing output was flat over that period. That was it. Ever heard of productivity? Therefore, productivity (output per worker) here rose by 43.9 percent.