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Job Openings vs. S&P 📉📈

the most challenging data for both the soft landing crowd and the "higher for longer" crowd are that federal receipts from social security and medicare withholding are moving at a pace that is more in-line with the "hard landing" scenario and it's been that way for many months.

As a result of the dovish pivot, there are a very wide range of outcomes for 2024. Not all of these are realistic, each should be probability weighted. Please let me know which scenario you see most likely and why, and I will then let you know my view

Crypto economics Once upon a time, a man appeared in a village and announced to the locals that he would pay $10 for each monkey. The villagers went to the forest and started capturing them. The man brought thousands of monkeys for $10 each. 1/

Unable to resist such a surefire winner, the villagers rounded up all their savings, and borrowing every penny that they could, they eagerly bought all the monkeys. They never saw the man or his assistant again. Now, you understand how the crypto currency market works. 5/End

My top 56 accounts exclusively for stock idea generation: 1. Ian Bezek — Latin American equities and publicly traded airports 2. Citrini — Global macro and long/short equities 3. Rev Cap — Cyclicals investor 4. Research — Deep investigative work, currently on RILY 5. David Orr

The “soft landing” crew is rightly cheering the big slowdown in #inflation which I foresaw but is missing the fact that most of the drop had little to do with Federal Reserve policy. This has big implications for 2024

I remember the many who told me in Q2 2008 that we had avoided #recession because POTUS helped pass fiscal stimulus, JP bought Bear, Federal Reserve created a newfangled lending facility (TSLF), financial conditions were easing etc.

Can S&P500 still trade 1833? Yes, it’s possible. Now 4800.

S&P 500 $SPX has now spent the most amount of time in overbought levels since late 2019/early 2020

$VV (Vanguard Large Caps) - The five largest trades of 2023 are shown. #21 arrived today. It was exactly 500K shares, suggesting it was an opening position. The question I ask myself is if they're more likely to buy at the tippy top or short. We'll know by Monday. Top

A healthy uptrend is 3 or 4 steps forward. 1 step backward. An unhealthy uptrend is 5 or 6 steps forward. No step backward. A speculative fueled bubble is 10 steps forward. Well you know what happens next…

I'm gonna piss off some crypto bros here, but #Bitcoin is likely going to fail and undercut the Nov. 2022 lows. In Bressert cycle theory, cycle failure is an inevitable part of higher prices. #BTC has had 4 right translated monthly cycles, and is now in cycle #5. This cycle

Here's an unsavory fractal. #ETH 2018. And #BTC today.

Insider Sales to Buy ratio hits 63! Insiders are dumping but you should buy because you know more than they do about their companies. 😂😂😂 via Julia Cordova

BTC defined Bitcoin is not a currency nor a commodity nor an asset. It is an illiquid thing that has no utility or value beyond speculation that it will be a liquid asset someday in the future, or a plaything for those who manipulate the emotions of those who believe it will be.

Unpopular Opinion: The spot #Bitcoin ETF approval was the illuminati exit...

Economic Data Real Economy

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