I'm often intrigued by questions from strangers. Yesterday on the train, for example, someone recognized me as "that economist" and asked why "America, as the most powerful economy, doesn't run balanced trade or surpluses with all other countries?" "Good question," I replied,

This battle over Abrego Garcia is simple. It doesn't matter that he was here illegally. It doesn't matter if he's a gang member or if he's a wife beater (both of which are disputed). It doesn't matter if you think he deserves to be deported or to be in prison. / thread

x.com/i/article/1912…

Economic activity is falling off a cliff and any activity that remains, the prices are going up. Absolute worst scenario for policy makers here especially with no meaningful idea of how permanent tariffs will be. We’re at a phase now where even if they get removed today the

It’s okay to admit you’re wrong. Doubling down on losing strategies - from lockdowns to open borders to, yes, tariff wars - is what destroys leaders. And countries. Both sides have forgotten one of Wall Street’s most important truisms: Your first loss is your best loss.

Best economist ever

Shock. Who would have imagined? The World Economic Forum founder is accused of manipulating research to cozy up to governments and whitewash interventionist policies. ft.com/content/85d132…

It’s crazy how you can just overlay M2 on any chart and if it goes up you long and can outperform the smartest pod shop hedge funds filled with phd traders and the market will not frontrun that ever and let you in

For context, out of China's total exports in a given year, the US buys like 10-15% of them. Many people don't seem to appreciate this.

Context: This PR proposes changes to Bitcoin Core by removing default limits on OP_RETURN - a part of transactions used to store data. Currently, Core only allows a small OP_RETURN per transaction. The change would allow much larger OP_RETURNs, making Core more permissive in what

This is excellent and worth a read.

Cool to see Hugh finally come around

most devs I meet don't know how to vibe code in Cursor I find it crazy they'd rather waste hours instead of invest 20 minutes into their workflow. here's my stupid simple system:

TOM CRUISE'S "CRAZY" 2005 PHARMA RANT LOOKS PROPHETIC NOW Remember when everyone mocked Tom Cruise for that Matt Lauer interview? Turns out he was right about Big Pharma all along. Tom Cruise (2005 Today Show): "You're glib. You don't even know what Ritalin is... There's

Exactly… there are no recessions when M2 is going up /s Except for all recessions.

The scene in Star Wars where Watto refuses government currency because it’s not real money... hits different now.

BREAKING: Apple just proved AI "reasoning" models like Claude, DeepSeek-R1, and o3-mini don't actually reason at all. They just memorize patterns really well. Here's what Apple discovered: (hint: we're not as close to AGI as the hype suggests)

Starting to suspect the reason a lot of folks think LLMs are capable of reasoning is because many humans are themselves quite terrible at doing so.

Tether will work towards open-sourcing its Bitcoin Mining OS (MOS). A horde of new Bitcoin mining companies will be able to enter the game and compete to keep the network safe. No need anymore of any 3rd party hosted software. MOS will create an even playing field reducing the

The only Bitcoin prediction of mine that truly matters is in 2011, at $1, I said it was going to $100,000 This was said on my show, etc As far as new predictions… The only metric you need to know is that everything is going to zero against Bitcoin. x.com/i/grok/share/t…