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In the end, given delta, I think 90-95% of Americans will have either been infected or vaccinated. We will reach a steady state of ~50-100 deaths per day (from a mixture of sources) and COVID19 will settle into endemicity. This will happen in 2022, as forecast in #ApollosArrow

Covid now presents the sort of risk to most vaccinated people that we unthinkingly accept in other parts of life. And Covid isn’t going to disappear. In many ways, the future has arrived. So which precautions should stay and which should go? 🧵 nytimes.com/2021/11/12/bri…

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From Katelyn Jetelina Katelyn Jetelina yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/new-concerni…

Is it possible #OmicronVariant sets us back to square one? No We have lots of tests that'll detect Omicron We have therapies that'll work Our vaccines MAY take a hit but will still provide some (may be a lot) protection We are in a MUCH better place This isn't March 2020

Lots of caveats; too soon to know. But early info from South Africa provide tantalizing hints that #Omicron may trigger milder illness. With thoughts from Marion Koopmans, publications: https://pure.eur.nl, Amesh Adalja & Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD DSc(hon). statnews.com/2021/12/04/omi…

1 of 6: Gauteng #Omicron update - 8 December: The load on hospitals is significantly lower compared to Delta, and with a peak imminent, hospitals will not be overloaded at all. No restrictions are needed to help hospitals in any way.

For nearly 2 years, I've closely tracked infections Because infections invariably led to hospitalizations and deaths But I expect that in this upcoming wave That link will finally break Cases will spike But among vaccinated/boosted people, it won't lead to serious illness

This is the most important chart in the country right now, out of New York City, and I'm going to keep posting it until people get what it's saying. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…