Now that Ethereum has run the prior All Time Highs in August, I think ETH will drop back to its 21W EMA. A lot of people will get upset with this idea, but this has been the plan since ETH went home in April (new ATH, then pullback to 21W EMA and find support).

The rotation back to #BTC should continue here through September and October. I know dominance still has not really moved much, but it should be back above 60% in the coming weeks

#ALT / #ETH pairs literally found their local low the same week that ETH hit an ATH. And during that time, ALT/BTC pairs also went down, and BTC Dominance went up. Basically ALTs are bleeding less than ETH right now. We should see ETH hit its 21W EMA by late September/early

#Ethereum: Dubious Speculation youtube.com/watch?v=-sL3yC…

#ETH ran the highs in August, and the current pullback should bring ETH back to its 21W EMA. After ETH drops to the 21W EMA, it then should rally to new All Time Highs.

x.com/i/spaces/1rmGP…

#BTC still just above its bull market support band. The grueling September test continues...

We are now in week 3 of #ALTs going up against #ETH after ETH hit its ATH. Trend to likely continue until ETH tags the 21W EMA. Once ETH tags the 21W EMA, ALTs will probably start bleeding to ETH again.

#Gold breaks $3600! youtube.com/watch?v=ODZUKe…

PPI Actual: 2.6% Estimated: 3.3% Prior: 3.3%

Headline CPI Actual: 2.9% Estimated: 2.9% Prior: 2.7%

Initial Claims Actual: 263k Estimated: 235k Prior: 237k

Core CPI Actual: 3.1% Estimated: 3.1% Prior: 3.1%

Inflation Rises to 2.9% youtube.com/watch?v=chjQo9…

It would be reasonable for the Fed to cut 50 bps at the next FOMC: -Unemployment Rate Trending higher (4.3%) -Initial Claims just had an un-seasonal spike to 263k -Job Openings/Available Worker is <1 -2Y is 100 bps below FFR so 50 bps cut is still restrictive

However, markets are only expecting a 25 bps rate cut. The rationale must be continued worries about inflationary spikes due to tariffs.

Headline Inflation

Core Inflation

Too bad we won't get another initial claims data point between now and next FOMC. Hopefully the spike to 263k is not a sustained spike. Not very seasonal to see spikes this time of the year

#Bitcoin Dominance is up 0.04% so far in September The big move up by dominance usually happens in October. Then in November... Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.