Prediction markets being sold to retail as the next big important asset class is disgusting.

Today’s farm investment: hand weeding a small piece of ground. We weren’t here this time last year, so this kind of work wasn’t possible. Early spring makes it easier, the soil is soft, and the weeds haven’t had time to take hold. This section took about an hour and a half.

The famous closing line from Saxe: “Each was partly in the right, And all were in the wrong.” Good morning ☕️

Good morning ☕️ a few thoughts on the Iran conflict at the current juncture. If you step back and picture the negotiating table, it is not a clean diplomatic setting but a layered one, part formal talks, part implied pressure, part actions still unfolding in the background. The

Each weekend I write a note on the S&P 500, usually 5 pages or so, between Saturday morning and Sunday. This weekend, as an experiment, I avoided all headlines until it was done. Only then did I look. It’s a useful reminder on discipline. Not because headlines don’t matter, but

A quick read on S&P 500 earnings consensus at a glance: can you guess which name is doing the heavy lifting? A disproportionate share of expected growth is tied to a single company. Strip that out, and the broader S&P 500 is expected to outgrow the remaining mega-cap cohort. 🤔

Good evening 🌅 an updated thought on the Iran conflict given the Trump Xi meeting scheduled for mid May (still 14-15th correct?) China’s exposure to Iranian crude creates a quiet constraint: part of its energy supply sits within a sanctioned channel that the US can influence at

What album is playing in this picture? Band begins with W and the album is the compliment of Orange.

Finding that this morning’s soundtrack leans coffee house, skipping through tracks in search of that modern indie drift: calm and unforced, with just enough grit underneath to keep me ready to move. Good morning ☕️

This S&P 500 volume to start the week has been weaker than a “trust me bro” thesis. But trust me bro… with all these catalysts, things are about to pop off. I might have a post going out this evening that actually tries to make sense. For now, this is what you get, a bad joke

I’ve been watching BDCs for a while, mostly because I think it’s an interesting lens that’s available to (potentially) gain better comprehension of the current credit cycle. I thought today’s earnings report from ARCC was particularly interesting. It’s often regarded as a blue

Would welcome a fade back into structure in SPX. Might learn something. And if not, I might learn something else. Watching a car drive uphill with its e-brake pulled is only so useful. Don’t laugh, my first car had a handbrake. Much more interested in how Gold finishes compared

Backyard Market Talk - “Sell in May”

This volume is lighter than Don Pepe’s wallet after dinner.

How many times can someone allude to a thing without ever actually saying the thing? Apparently, a lot. Sometimes it’s like the implication becomes stronger than the eventual statement itself. Good morning ☕️