$SLV is the altcoin of precious metals. Long $SLV $TLT taking a break today.

"That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. There are three months left in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30" Tariffs are working to fix the deficit.

$TLT back at it. Added a little more right here.

Finally this thing is moving again! Long $ETHE, $ETH

This means if the stock market starts going down, spending from the top 10% will also start going down and it becomes a negative feedback loop with the data.

That train keeps going and so does a second train of slowing growth. This chart does not imply inflation. See Japan.

$TLT just broke the 50 SMA and nobody noticed. Also, back above the gap. It's been slowly cooking here...

Rent peaked below last year's levels. High yields are curing high prices. $TLT

Does a tariff revenue estimator exist? That would be super useful for macro.

So... Look at the details. Budget estimate for the full year from customs duties (2025). Actual is on track for 150B+ versus 63B estimate. That means the deficit is on track to be much lower.

I've been calling for Japan 2.0 for a while. Ironically, when this is done, the deficit is fine as long as spending only increases at the rate you want inflation to increase. Downside for politicians: you can't pull forward demand anymore without instantly creating inflation.

How much did my 2024 Mercedes AMG go up in value with the 15% EU tariffs?

$TLT We are so back!

So...here's what the non-farm payrolls look like with revisions. The picture is clear to me. It's inline with Leading Indicator Index as well. Really nice setup for bonds, $TLT. It's been a long steady slowdown but that's what happens when you try to fight macro forces. #macro

"Zillow reported this week it would take mortgage rates dropping to about 4.43% to make an average home affordable for a typical buyer". Long $TLT to save housing.

👀 Deflation fast approaching... I can confirm that the rental market continues to be soft (first noticed in the beginning of the summer). CPI is very lagging but new leases are what leads the market and the data set. #bonds $TLT

The 70s inflation narrative is in the rearview mirror. In fact we should be developing the recessionary narrative of the early 80s. Rent inflation is falling quickly...

👀Is this why Buffett went to cash?

Deflation...

$TLT - one of the longest setups known to man. Watching and waiting...👀