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In this week’s episode, Jeannette Chu joins the Trade Guys to break down ✅Export controls ✅The AI Diffusion rule and semiconductor exports ✅Section 232 tariffs 🔗CSIS: tinyurl.com/48y8f5es 🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/2s3d9hzc 🍎Apple: tinyurl.com/2c7f6x7c

Citing “a substantial rise in trade barriers”, the World Bank downgraded its forecast of global economic growth to 2.3% in 2025, while predicting that the U.S. economic growth would be halved relative to 2024, going from 2.8% to 1.4%, per The Associated Press apnews.com/article/world-…

As U.S. and Chinese officials meet in London, Philip A. Luck explains how the Trump administration has made their job harder. “The tariff policies they've implemented are costly to Americans… They are under a lot of pressure to do things fast." Business Insider businessinsider.com/top-trump-offi…

Trump announced an unofficial framework for a trade deal with China. The U.S. would impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods and continue granting student visas, while China would impose a 10% duty and resume supplying magnets and rare earth minerals, Reuters reuters.com/world/china/tr…

A federal appeals court continued to allow the Trump administration to impose sweeping tariffs as a lower court ruling—which found that the tariffs exceeded Trump’s power under IEEPA—is appealed. Oral arguments are set for July 31, per The Associated Press apnews.com/article/trump-…

"They're going to export more rare earths and we're going to remove some of our recent export controls," Center for Strategic and International Studies adviser Bill Reinsch says on US-China trade relations.

President Trump announced an agreement with China to resume rare earth minerals exports, ending supply disruptions. China's chokehold on rare earth supply chains and resulting leverage necessitate investment into alternative supply, says Gracelin Baskaran. csis.org/analysis/trump…

The ethane export controls highlight weakness in U.S. economic statecraft: limited impact on China, high costs for U.S. producers, and arbitrary implementation. The episode offers lessons on the need for better analysis and targeted policy, writes Philip A. Luck csis.org/analysis/us-ch…

Following Israel’s attack on Iran, crude oil prices spiked to around $74 a barrel, and analysts fear that prices could reach $90 if the conflict broadens, per Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price…

A new commentary from Philip A. Luck analyzes the myriad issues with the recent U.S. ethane export controls. Find it here: csis.org/analysis/ethan…

Rising Middle East tensions could push oil above $80, strengthen the dollar, and keep central banks on hold, according to ING Think. think.ing.com/articles/middl…

Canada’s PM Mark Carney is steering the summit toward economic security, hard power, and trade diversification—seeking to reduce dependency on U.S. policy. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This week, Bill Reinsch analyzes what is publicly known about the framework deal forged between the United States and China in London last week. csis.org/analysis/lever…

CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair highlights how hidden leverage and unregulated carry trades have become a structural risk to global financial stability—and calls on G7 leaders to take coordinated action before the next crisis erupts. csis.org/analysis/why-g…

PM Keir Starmer is meeting with President Trump to push toward finalizing a UK‑US trade pact, signaling momentum in post‑Brexit trade talks. Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

U.S. industrial output fell again in May—the second dip in three months—highlighting cooling factory activity and lending weight to speculation of a Fed rate cut this fall. Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

President Trump signs partial UK-US tariff deal, lowering car duties and expanding quotas on ethanol and beef. Steel tariffs remain unresolved, prompting calls for clarity from British industry. BBC News (UK): bbc.com/news/articles/…

The latest episode of The Trade Guys, “A New U.S.-China Framework Agreement and the Stubbornness of Globalization,” is out now! CSIS: tinyurl.com/4ud7cnsy Spotify: tinyurl.com/2w9wprt6 Apple: tinyurl.com/3wfpmj44

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, leaving investors uncertain about when cuts might come. Markets are now focused on signals from tariffs, tax policy, and trade developments. Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair highlights how hidden leverage and unregulated carry trades have become a structural risk to global financial stability—and calls on G7 leaders to take coordinated action before the next crisis erupts. csis.org/analysis/why-g…