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Bitcustodes

@bitcustodes

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calendar_today26-03-2024 14:16:44

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Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Tempting to load up on $STRC at ~$93 w/ margin, and if it stays below $95 for the last week of August, the dividend should increase 50bps for a 10%+ yield to pay the margin interest. Then wait a couple months to unwind for a ~6%+ gain. Is this intelligent leverage or just dumb?

Tempting to load up on $STRC at ~$93 w/ margin, and if it stays below $95 for the last week of August, the dividend should increase 50bps for a 10%+ yield to pay the margin interest. Then wait a couple months to unwind for a ~6%+ gain. Is this intelligent leverage or just dumb?
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Do the $MSTR senior prefs $STRF and $STRC look cheap here? Other corporates with similar 9-10%+ yields have far lower collateral value cushions. The #Bitcoin stigma discount in tradfi remains alive and well. Prefs need to do well or the mNAV to $BTC falls.

Do the $MSTR senior prefs $STRF and $STRC look cheap here? Other corporates with similar 9-10%+ yields have far lower collateral value cushions. The #Bitcoin stigma discount in tradfi remains alive and well. Prefs need to do well or the mNAV to $BTC falls.
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Do the prefs need to recover by month end to drive $MSTR higher? If they don’t will $MSTY risk an even lower dividend payout at month end with the dual risk of lower $BTC and compressing mNAV? Does mNAV compress when #Bitcoin dumps and vice versa? x.com/bitcustodes/st…

Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

At ~9% div w/ ~10% eff yields, are $MSTR prefs $STRD $STRK $STRC $STRF cheap? Backed by 10x net of debt #Bitcoin NAV coverage, it’s like having $100k of $BTC with ~$900 a year in payouts w/ no margin call risk. High yield, low credit risk, with appreciating pristine collateral?

Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

19 days later $113k $BTC is still disappointing, esp since its at $112.5k! Will #Bitcoin hodlers care what the #FederalReserve chair says tomorrow at Jackson Hole?

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These words in a remote part of Wyoming was enough to send #Bitcoin and $MSTR soaring. Noise or signal? "Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

These words in a remote part of Wyoming was enough to send #Bitcoin and $MSTR soaring. Noise or signal? "Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Some $MSTR and $MSTY ‘investors’ are as volatile as the tickers. #Bitcoin returns weren’t enough, so they had to lever it up then get emotional about it. Have some fled to $ETH already, or do they truly believe the $BTC pristine collateral gospel?

Some $MSTR and $MSTY ‘investors’ are as volatile as the tickers. #Bitcoin returns weren’t enough, so they had to lever it up then get emotional about it. Have some fled to $ETH already, or do they truly believe the $BTC pristine collateral gospel?
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

What do we call it when the state takes equity in ‘strategic’ firms and commands the central bank printer to fund deficits? Even if you think it justified in the short term, it sets a potentially dangerous precedent for future pols and career bureaucrats to abuse. Study #Bitcoin.

What do we call it when the state takes equity in ‘strategic’ firms and commands the central bank printer to fund deficits? Even if you think it justified in the short term, it sets a potentially dangerous precedent for future pols and career bureaucrats to abuse. Study #Bitcoin.
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$MSTR relies on its Prefs $STRD, $STRK, $STRC, $STRF for success, but the real driver is #Bitcoin. How the Prefs impact $MSTR ultimately comes down to what $BTC does. Prefs & BTC need to do well or mNAV likely falls to 1.

$MSTR relies on its Prefs $STRD, $STRK, $STRC, $STRF for success, but the real driver is #Bitcoin. How the Prefs impact  $MSTR ultimately comes down to what $BTC does. Prefs & BTC need to do well or mNAV likely falls to 1.
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Aren’t $MSTR and $MSTY just leverage on #Bitcoin? Strip away the complexity, it’s still a bet on $BTC to the moon. Determining position size relative to the overall portfolio is critical, then it’s a leap of faith and endurance for those who want the exposure.

Aren’t $MSTR and $MSTY just leverage on #Bitcoin? Strip away the complexity, it’s still a bet on $BTC to the moon. Determining position size relative to the overall portfolio is critical, then it’s a leap of faith and endurance for those who want the exposure.
Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Is $1 div per $MSTY share the floor until #Bitcoin upswing restarts? Or does it get much worse from here? Assuming $1 for 13 payments a year with a $17 price is ~76.5%. That still seems outrageously high, but do $MSTY fans think that’s low?

Bitcustodes (@bitcustodes) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Dylan C ⚡️ Seems pretty clear who has the stock vs trading options on the stock. Sometimes I wonder who actually has Bitcoin though. The one problem I have with the long term MSTR thesis is there needs to be an end game. With a giant pile of capital I guess they can figure it out later.