10 year yield continues to tank down to 3.86% today. This implies a greater than 80% chance that within 3 years, barring other information, 30 yr mortgage rates will be around 4.86 and 5.36%. The real question is will home over supply contribute to lower rates AND lower price?

The Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.3 trillion from its peak in April 2022. How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022? $3.5 trillion.

While all the market timers moved into 5% cash because it's "safe" I netted a 40% return in my 6 year olds 529 account. Don't sit on the sidelines. Don't "wait until things feel better" because by then it's too late.

Truflation.com Continues to lead government inflation reporting by 45 days on avg. Equalization across cap size is inbound. Small and mid caps beaten down to much. Maintain diversification and overweight mid caps. Small cap indexes still unattractive.

Ever heard of Puerto Rico's Act 60? Just learned about it this year. 1. Move to PR. 2. Pay govt 5k. 3. Donate 10k to charity there. 4. Maintain residency for 3 years. 5. Pay ZERO % CG tax on ANY asset. Stocks. Real estate. Bitcoin. Anything. Healthcare and hurricanes though..

eBay to layoff 1,160 employees, 10% of their workforce

I have 3 Roth IRAs. Yes 3: 1. Core Roth IRA 85% equities. 2. Small Cap Growth and Disruptive Tech Focused (97% equities). 3. Speculative Stocks 100% equities. Don't recommend for everyone.

Loose fiscal policy remains the elephant in the room, boosting the risk of fiscal dominance and the pressure on bond supply through persistently large fiscal deficits, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. Read her latest outlook. s.frk.com/3S0P3OU

PLTR up big (28%) today and more over last 3 months. Had been buying this for clients left and right past 6 months. Position in my own Roth IRA as well. This is a 10 year hold.

Fed is wrong again on rates. Inflation is actually between 1.5 to 1.8% right now. If you're older and sitting on cash. You should go heavy on mid duration bonds now. Easy 12%+ returns within 1-2 years. Federal rate should be under 4% by Summer 2025.

Traded Palantir for a client recently for a 40% gain. Not bad for a 1 month trade.

On boarded two 20 year olds this week. Major takeaway. Ignore the current noise and invest for the future. Roth IRAs working at 97% equity for both. What can we do today to produce results 10 years from now? You should ask yourself the same question if you are 30-55.

Saw a funny post on reddit with people claiming to get the best rate on MMKT at 4.5%. Wow. My clients get 5.4%. So do all the banks. Whoops.

Government reported inflation was over 3% today. What if I told you it was actually 1.39%? Why hasn't the inflation calculation been changed since roughly 1999?

Made a lot of trades for clients (and in my own accounts) out of broad total market ETFs in favor of more focused funds and tilting more towards value. Decrease in rates will favor quality to rise with breadth also normalizing. Don't buy the S&P 500. Buy the top 250 or less.

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Broad stock market and its bloated broad indexes are in danger just like the nifty 50 were decades ago. Get more concentrated and mix in active strategies. Drop the bottom 250 off the 500 for example. Look to small caps over the next 7 years.

Realtor fees get cut in half Now investors see an IRR 2% higher than previous on every property Prices rise to account for lower expenses because there is no free lunch in finance, rates of return will normalize via higher prices pushing yields back down Current owners win

Got three AMEX cards this year. Great program. I have arrived.

I find myself on X less and less. Feels less and less relevant by the day.