10th, 50th and 90th percentile snowfall means from the EPS tonight for our threat on the 6th. This signal at this juncture is amazing to see, especially from the EPS; additionally, given the antecedent cold airmass, ratios should be even higher than 10:1.

SnowCon: 3/5 Trend: ⬆️ We are feeling that there is now a more reasonable chance for wintry precipitation next week and potentially our first significant accumulating snowfall of the season. Models continue to be consistent with a storm Sunday Night into Monday. Some models had

Whiteout conditions in Germantown, MD as another squall pushes through. Coming down with roads covered. Capital Weather Gang Mike Thomas

❄️ SECOND CALL❄️ ☃️ Not the easiest forecast ☃️Expecting sleet south of 70, if no sleet I see someone getting a foot ☃️School closures, maybe multiple days ☃️Solid storm for Delmarva/Beaches

The one model I was worried about is south now. History tells us it tends to do big snows near event time, but if NAM continues this I could easily see someone getting a foot north of DC. Montgomery, Prince Georges, Howard, Anne Arundel. Hard forecast remains

Been a minute since you've seen a run like this that starts at hour TWENTY FOUR.

As of 6:56 PM, our storm is progressing east with an impressive "comma head" structure which signifies an intense system. Snow is moving in into Richmond and points south, slightly earlier than modeled. WWG will be doing live updates as often as we can to keep everyone updated

3.2" in Germantown, MD. Looks like we're performing well here with more banding coming from the south. ❄️☃️

Comparing observations to short-resolution models, it's evident that the precipitation northwest of our vort-max (which brings the snow later in the night today) is overperforming. Be prepared tonight and stay off roads past 6 PM to avoid getting caught off guard.

There is genuinely no reason a major sidewalk should look like this 4 days after an 8" snowstorm, we do not live in the south 😭😭

it's so over

FIRST CALL: Here are our thoughts on the upcoming winter storm. We think the heaviest snow will fall in and around the DC Metro and to the southeast, with 3-5” expected up north. Any preparations need to be completed today and tomorrow. This will be a long-duration snow event.

So disappointed in MCPS's decision to presumably stay open after no announcement. As a student myself who drives home, being sent home in these conditions is unacceptable especially since there are so many students who drive back too. Temperatures are at 30° on this frame.

With our upcoming threat, I would STRONGLY caution against relying on means on ensembles for the time being. Lots of potential with this one — which means big members can skew the ensembles. Ensembles will be helpful for determining the progression of the phase for now.

Looking back at this winter, it's nice to see that we've gotten not one but two 90th+ percentile snowstorms for the immediate DMV area—one on January 6th, and one on February 11th—a change from past winters with a possible third 90th+ percentile storm on our heels. ❄️☃️

What a shit show

Looking back at what went wrong with the storm, it seems like it was a combination of more "confluence" (a storm suppressor) pressing in more and squashing the height fields along with subtle changes both upstream & downstream causing more separation between our pieces.

Though the weather is relatively quiet today, it's a pretty comfortable outside for most of the DMV! Though cloudy, today is a great day to go on a walk if it's not raining where you're at. Editor's note: We're rolling out something new we made which is the plot you see below.