Think I need to translate this for everyone: When Bloomberg shows Canada sell side consensus for Payrolls is -2.5k, what that means in Canadian is that we expect payrolls to be somewhere between -250k to + 250k. 🍁🇨🇦😂

Global repricing in rates! Belly smashed everywhere! Other central banks were already at or below neutral, so it makes more sense! For the US, it seems like the neutral is being repriced higher, despite what the administration wants!!

Hi #EconTwitter! I’ve got a new working paper on central bank lending facilities in crises and their transmission to broader credit supply. 🚨A summary thread🚨

Fed decided to begin RMP anyway. 40bn a month! A bit sooner and a bit more than expected - hence the buying in SR1-ZQ.

SOFR was at IOR going into FOMC and they still announced reserve management purchases! One way traffic in SR1-ZQ!

If it has to be a Kevin, may I recommend

Gold vs Oil was the 'macro' pair of 2025! Previous jumps in this pair have been driven by spikes in oil, but this year it has been the relentless bid in gold. If we attribute this (in part) to anti-$ reserve diversification, then one can argue this was the best 'Trump' trade!

This resembles the backtesting results of my algo!

Core Services Ex Housing was 0.07% between Sep and Nov.., That is incredibly soft. If the market didn't believe that this CPI is biased because of sampling errors (due to govt shutdown), we would have rallied 25bps on this, given the labor outlook!

2% 10y JGB yield as we live and breath!

LLMs for Quantitative Investment Research: A Practitioner's Guide by Anna-Helena Mihov, Nick Firoozye, Philip Treleaven :: SSRN papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

JPY vs UST/JGB rate differential divergence - there’s a lot going on here, but I think it’s reflective of JGB traders not being convinced of a bottom in bond prices, since the BoJ’s forward guidance isn’t getting ahead of the inflation narrative (only catching up).

All set for the day! Merry Christmas 🎄🎅❄️📀🍜

Martingale + systematic short vol mean reversion is the surest way to blow up! Only a question of When, not If. Can’t believe someone who had millions to lose was doing this!

There’s so much AI generated slop on the main feed now that the possibility of deriving any value from X is now entirely a function of knowing whom to follow! Counterintuitive, but this is the first “edge” that AI has created for me :)