The results of UBI trials suggest that UBI is not in the realm of policies that pay for themselves (basically stuff that targets children). But still is better than a lot of the existing social safety net.

For years, unemployment agencies have struggled to limit improper payments, including an estimated $191 billion during the Covid-19 pandemic. As Josh McCabe and I argue in a new report, a critical part of the solution involves collecting eligibility information sooner. 🧵

We said no subtweeting and Matt Bruenig and Kelsey Piper took that seriously. Read them duke it out: theargumentmag.com/p/mad-libs-bru…

“The broader revisionist narrative—that the people in charge imposed sweeping restrictions that they knew were pointless—is a dangerous overcorrection.” theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

New piece up at Barron's! A few analyses now forcefully pushback on the hypothesis that AI is driving the job struggles of new grads. If a stronger link develops between AI & employment outcomes, though, our unemployment insurance system is ill-prepared to handle the shock

.Jerusalem' case for staying at the Nazi bar

I don't think we should expect the welfare state to reduce pre-transfer poverty (that is to say, poverty before taking into account welfare), and we shouldn't be particularly bothered by that. To get at why, it's helpful to take a look at who is in pre-transfer poverty (thread)

To this point: even not counting children and the elderly, most people will experience poverty, and most people in poverty are there temporarily. The number of people in persistent poverty is very small.

The post-Covid immaculate disinflation underscores the huge value of anchored inflation expectations. Less anchored expectations would have meant tighter policy and a slower recovery from the Covid recession. 10/

It has taken the Fed almost half a century to build up credibility. Hopefully, all this effort is not squandered through misguided political interference. 11/11

The Fair Housing Act bans discrimination against families w/ children but nobody cares so landlords and investors openly share tips on how to break the law

“Trump is trying to illegally take control of the Fed so he can force it to print money to finance his reckless tax cuts for billionaires, imposing an inflation tax on Americans and making everything you buy more expensive.”

Lot of folks had strong opinions about my case for staying on Twitter (mostly on Bl*esky) so Adam Gurri demanded that I debate him about it. Presenting Mad Libs 2: Electric Boogaloo

this is actually very neat what The Argument is doing here with mad libs. a real innovation in web journalism. taking the diffuse indirect nature of disagreement in discourse - extracting it from subtweets, lone substacks or screenshots - turning it into an earnest dialectic

“The military released its initial findings into the strike, offering no immediate explanation for striking twice and no evidence for an assertion that six of the dead were militants.” apnews.com/article/israel…

Many are covering failed indictments in DC cases like the sandwich thrower as jury nullification, but that seems too strong. A non-nullifying grand jury could conclude that throwing a sandwich did not risk "corporal injury" or otherwise create reasonable "apprehension of harm":

Great piece. The left often fails to appreciate that "the forces of traditionalism" will often win majority votes (now, at least). But deeper, some choices shouldn't be subject to a vote. Determining which they are, and protecting them without impeding the state, is critical.

Combined with other reporting out there -- and what I'm now also hearing -- looks like at least 5 senior CDC leaders just left/are leaving the agency today Never seen anything like this