This won't be the last big asset writedown to hit Australia's super funds. A reminder to all that the supposed low volatility of unlisted assets is a mirage. Just because you can't see a price doesn't mean the value hasn't changed afr.com/companies/fina…

1. Stocks: all-time high 2. Home Prices: all-time high 3. Gold: all-time high 4. Bitcoin: all-time high 5. National Debt: all-time high 6. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 41 straight months, longest period of high inflation since early 1990s 7. Fed: cutting rates again next week

Well the 1 year anniversary of the last RBA hike is in and I think we can safely say policy was nowhere as restrictive as we thought it would be. Best thing about today? The bias stayed largely neutral but Feb is still pretty conditional

And by the way the Fed meets this week and is almost certain to cut by 25bps. Meanwhile US treasury yields now soaring - c.80bps above the Sep lows.

Economists are largely throwing in the towel (again) on rate cuts, pushing Feb to May in this ongoing can kick. The bar might be high but don't rule Feb out. There's a clear fragility beneath the surface and a lot can happen in 3 months.

Depressing GDP stats downunder. Again. 0.8% annual growth! Wat? Govt govt govt. Whilst the rest of the economy languishes afr.com/policy/economy…

This chart is not Argentine stocks in peso terms v. in USD terms. It is SPX Total Return in USD terms v. in gold terms, January 1999-present. 🤯 1/

Well that was one of the more bizarre RBA decisions in quite a while. Best guess, a cut to get everyone off their backs and sit back and now see how it all plays out. Core CPI now expected to bottom at 2.7% v 2.5% prior.

Great, albeit depressing, article in the AFR from John Kehoe. Any of us with kids should demand more than the current extend and pretend from the political class. afr.com/policy/economy…

Teals push to index income tax thresholds to inflation. I have been pushing this excellent idea for years - unlegisated, annual increases in income tax are both immoral and shockingly bad for economic growth. afr.com/politics/feder…

Fed governor Chris Waller to FBN: "Everybody I've talked to in the financial markets, they're staring at the bill, and they thought it was going to be much more in terms of fiscal restraint, and they're not necessarily seeing it. And therefore there's going to be a lot of

There's nothing good about high and rising US Treasury yields. The only silver lining is that it shuts down all the #MMT nonsense of recent years, which told us that "deficits don't matter." Deficits do matter and fiscal space is finite. Time for #MMT to go the way of the dodo...

The ABS just reported that the value of the Australian housing stock was above $11 trillion, that's over four times annual GDP. Compared with the US at 1.6 times. An enormous amount of capital devoted to a very low productivity asset. This is a handbrake on our economy.

BREAKING: The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May, the third-largest on record. This comes as total government outlays rose 3% from YoY, to $687 billion, per ZeroHedge. And, while tariff revenue surged 270% YoY, to a record $23 billion, it barely made a dent

Trump can lower rates by nominating his own Chair and shortening the maturity profile of Treasuries. But that will come at the cost of significant dollar depreciation. Low rates sound risk positive, but the impact could be overwhelmed by capital flight. fedguy.com/operation-free…

Investors wake up! The timing of the new Fed chair is less significant than the influence he will have on his committee. If he can sway the committee’s thinking over time, bond markets will increasingly go curve positive, the dollar will weaken, and inflation will likely move to

When considering whether or not to invest in the US economy, particularly in real assets, it is interesting to note just how different it is to other advanced economies including of course Australia's.

Foreign Producers Not Picking Up Much Of The Tab After months of elevated tariffs it’s becoming increasingly clear that foreign producers are not absorbing much of the rise in duties. The result is US companies and consumers are footing the bill.

Gold is replacing fiat currencies as a reserve currency: Gold's share of global international reserves rose 3 percentage points in Q1 2025, to 24%, the highest in 30 years. This marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase. Meanwhile, the US Dollar's share declined ~2 percentage

The global rise in long-term yields on gov't bonds and the rise in gold prices are interconnected. Markets fear that high and rising debt burdens will be monetized and fiat currencies debased. So you get higher risk premia on gov't debt and a growing flight to safety into gold...