Goldman Sachs: “markets might not have bottomed” Wells Fargo: “could retest the lows” Morgan Stanley: “retesting the low end of 5,000 range is feasible” JP Morgan: “sees S&P500 falling to 4,000 in worst case scenario” Bank of America: “sell the rebound in US stocks” 🤔

Looking more and more like another 19% near bear market. If so, strong returns going out a year are perfectly normal.

hah! 😆

I remember Ian and I talking about this chart on the phone back in February of 2024? Seems like ages ago now... and while a lot has changed, not a whole lot has changed. It's like my golf game - how my drive goes 250 yards for a gain of 150.

There is a misconception that when sentiment turns from being overly bearish to neutral, that must be bad for stocks. Don't get caught in that trap, as it's untrue. With sentiment, only the outliers matter, 80% of the data is useless.... $SPX $QQQ

Year 3 of a bull market tends to be choppy -Merrill

The three year itch? Bull markets tend to catch their breath during this year, perfectly normal action so far in 2025. Especially interesting how year three was quite choppy when looking at the two longest bull markets ever.

Coming into this year we knew Q1 was quite weak historically, while Q2 was pretty strong. History rhymed once again.

$TLT vs. $SPX New lows for LT Treasuries vs. the S&P 500. But hey, at least you got your 4% 🫠

...this would be VERY interesting, should it come to play.

Was looking at some old posts from friends and came across this one from last month... Funny.

Whether it's a story about relatives or a story about the US dollar, at the end of the day, the question still remains: "Has the long-term trend changed?"

Delinquencies appear to be peaking and rolling over. Nice one from Torsten Slok.

59.... The $SPX has traded above its 20-day SMA for 59 straight trading days. That's the longest stretch since April 1998. Only a few dozen of times in history have we seen bull runs like this last this long. None of them ended with strong reversals nor tip new bear trends...

Revenue per worker has never been higher.

Thanks Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CFTe, CEPA for a fantastic discussion on the Market Misbehavior podcast! We talked early days as a financial advisor, how the introduction to technical analysis and CMT Association helped him improve his investment approach, and how he uses charts to enrich relationships

The latest worry they are trying to scare you about is margin debt above $1T for the first time ever = speculative mania is back. They conveniently leave out the denominator. Looking at this as a % of market cap shows a much different story. Great work from Suttmeier Technical Strategies here.

They told us the trade war meant everyone would dump our debt. What actually happened is foreigners are not only buying our debt, but buying stocks as well.

I'm sure someone else has pointed this out already, but I've been a little busy and haven't had time to be as "active" as I've been in the past... ...but while August ended up being a better month than it normally is, this negative divergence COULD be something to watch

Contrary to the never ending doom & gloom I see from some. Ride the wave…”the trend is your friend, till the end, when it bends.”