An update from the NASA M2M Forecast Office: The M2.4 flare from AR 4299 which peaked at at 2025-12-08T00:12Z is also Earth directed based on STEREO-A COR2 imagery. Preliminary ETA: 2025-12-10T13:47Z I believe HUXt modeled this one as a hit as well (75% confidence).

Wow the X1.1 may actually glance us!

Yikes

AR 4299 is producing an M-flare right now with CME which could deliver an impact to Earth. I’m currently outside and may not have an update for 45 min since I need to drive home from UAF, but heads up!

I now disagree with my last post- we didn’t get bumped with another minor CME. Because it went straight back to being smooth. It was just something in the structure that caused a bump. I do still think this is clearly a flux rope though from a different minor CME.

ELGSES :( 🦅