New episode with Paul Scharre of CNAS and it's my favorite yet. He explains - how AI’s superhuman command and control abilities will change the battlefield - why offense/defense balance isn’t a well-defined concept - why there could be “race to the bottom” dynamics for

Are drones offense or defense dominant? Paul Scharre of CNAS explains the first and second order effects. Link to the full interview below

Interesting article from The Guardian on Colombian soldiers in Sudan: theguardian.com/world/2025/oct…

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The US is years behind in deploying the latest technology on drone platforms. Paul Scharre of CNAS explains that a fast feedback loop in a real conflict (like in Ukraine) is the pressure needed to innovate. Link to the full convo below!

The geographic asymmetry between the US and China in a fight over Taiwan will have implications for what kinds of drones each will be able to deploy in a conflict. Link to the full episode with Paul Scharre of CNAS below.

Could we see a race-to-the-bottom in the safety of autonomous weapon systems? The deployment we see today in the Russia/Ukraine conflict show that incentives for this do exist. Paul Scharre of CNAS explains what escalations might occur as a result of these incentives.

Forecaster estimates for a Trump third term—Trump is a funny guy

The excellent Sentinel Global Risks forecasters think there's a 3.3% chance Trump will be de facto president after the end of his term. Also noteworthy that they think there's a 6% chance the development of superintelligence will be prohibited in the US by 2029. I recommend following them.

China has bought at least two cargoes of US soybeans, which may mark a revival of flows as part of a wider settlement expected to be agreed between the two biggest economies this week bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Calibration chart for Sentinel based on 124 resolved questions. Notice how our 10%s happen ~10% of the time, our 30%s happen 30% of the time, etc.

20% may be a bit on the high side, but 1.4% is far too low. Like a broken clock, RFK, Jr. is occasionally correct about things. Mass drugs like ozempic and the Covid vaccines used by hundreds of millions should trigger much larger RCTs. No one should get a phd without doing one