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Tropical Storm #Melissa has formed in the central Caribbean - the first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or #hurricane) in the Caribbean this year. The last season with no named storm activity in the Caribbean was 1997.

Very important trend to monitor…

Tropical Storm #Melissa Advisory 1: The 13th Tropical Storm of the Season Forms Over the Central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Watch Issued For Portions of Haiti. hurricanes.gov

Here's the initial NHC track forecast for #Melissa. Hurricane watch for portions of Haiti. We will be tracking this one for many days.

Despite the deterministic GFS continuing to insist on a north/northeast turn into Hispaniola, the GEFS is steadily trending SW, with fewer members showing rapid development. This seems consistent with the structure today. Can't rule out a landfall there for sure, but if trends

11am 25 Oct Key Messages for #Melissa: #Jamaica prep should be completed today. Melissa’s slow motion brings multi-day damaging winds+heavy rainfall, catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, damage, long-duration power communication outages, isolation. hurricanes.gov

2pm EDT 25 Oct Intermediate Advisory: #Melissa has become a #hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Rapid Intensification is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Latest info at hurricanes.gov

#Hurricane #Melissa is now forecast to reach Category 5 intensity on Monday. If it does so, it would be 3rd Cat 5 of the 2025 Atlantic #hurricane season (Erin & Humberto were other 2). Only 1 other Atlantic season on record has had >2 Cat. 5s: 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma)

And there we have it. #Melissa's WV eye temperature has broken -5°C, making it warmer than any other eye observed through geostationary water vapor imagery. Takes an upper echelon warm core for this

#Hurricane #Melissa's pressure has dropped to 906 mb - the 4th lowest for an October Atlantic hurricane on record. Three lowest are: Wilma (2005 - 882 mb), Milton (2024 - 895 mb), Mitch (1998 - 905 mb). Pressures have been recorded consistently for Atlantic hurricanes since 1979.

5pm EDT Oct 27th Key Messages for Category 5 #Hurricane #Melissa: #Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter & do not venture outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding & numerous landslides through Tuesday as Melissa's core moves ashore. hruricanes.gov

Hurricane #Melissa Advisory 26A: Melissa Expected to Bring Catastrophic and Life-Threatening Winds, Flooding, and Storm Surge to Jamaica Later Tonight and On Tuesday. hurricanes.gov

So far, the 2025 Atlantic #hurricane season is above normal for major hurricanes/days, near-normal for Accumulated Cyclone Energy and named storms, and slightly below-normal for other metrics.

#HappeningNow Junction, St Elizabeth #TrackingMelissa #HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica CVM Television

With a pressure of 892 mb, Melissa is tied for the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record (by pressure) and if it holds at 185 mph through landfall in Jamaica, it would tie Dorian in 2019 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane on record.

11AM #Melissa Update: #Jamaica THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW!

Data from the aircraft indeed indicated extreme turbulence, prompting a longer than usual loitering inside the eye after penetration. Hoping the crew is all safe and uninjured.

Ooof. Prayers for Jamaica and everyone along its path! #Melissa

#Hurricane #Melissa has made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane with max winds of 185 mph. Melissa breaks the old strongest Jamaican hurricane landfall record set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 (130 mph winds).

Hurricane Season isn't over, but it's quickly winding down. Here's a look at first predictions vs actual. Although a large range, NOAA's forecast did pretty well. Numbers were near to slightly below normal. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was slightly above normal. For the