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Ecuador’s 2025 presidential runoff resulted in a clear victory for Daniel Noboa, with an 11.3-point margin. But when we look more closely at comparative electoral data, the result stands out as highly anomalous. This thread outlines why — and why it matters. 🧵

To evaluate the 2025 result, we looked at 32 presidential runoff elections across Latin America. For each, we calculated how much the winner increased their vote total between the first and second rounds — as a share of third-party votes in the first round.

Why that metric? Because it approximates how many votes “up for grabs” between the top two candidates ended up going to the eventual winner. It’s not perfect — turnout shifts, voters switch sides — but it gives a good sense of the scale of a candidate’s second-round gain.

In Ecuador 2025, Noboa’s vote total increased by 110% of all third-party votes — more than double the average and a clear statistical outlier. The dashed line in the chart below shows the regional average of 54.8%. Noboa’s bar stands alone.

Noboa’s vote increase (110.4%) is 2.7 standard deviations above the mean, and well above the next-highest case: Haiti 2010/2011, a contested election widely believed to have been affected by fraud (96.5%). cnn.com/2010/WORLD/ame…

The third-highest case, Peru 2016, was very different: Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's gain (89.5%) reflected a well-documented anti-Fujimori surge, extensively picked up in polling. In Ecuador 2025, both pre-election and exit polls predicted a close race. reuters.com/article/world/…

We tested possible explanations. Could the result be driven by the low third-party vote share in the first round (just 11.9%)? The second chart shows that when fewer third-party votes are available, the winner’s gain is usually lower — not higher.

Could it be that overall turnout increased sharply in the second round? Again, the data don’t support that. The third chart shows that Ecuador’s overall vote growth between rounds was not unusual — yet Noboa’s gain was.

So how do we interpret this? The Ecuador 2025 result is not normal — and it shouldn’t be treated as such. Social scientists and electoral experts should ask: what could explain such an anomaly?

Let me be clear: this is not a claim of fraud. But the data show a pattern that calls for careful scrutiny. Anomalies aren’t in themselves proof of wrongdoing — but they do warrant investigation to understand the mechanism behind them.

Some have claimed outright vote rigging. Others have pointed to massive vote-buying operations or the widespread use of emergency decrees in the lead-up to the vote. These are hypotheses, not proven conclusions — but they merit serious consideration.

Elections sometimes produce surprises — but this is more than a surprise. It’s a result that deviates sharply from regional experience. Understanding how and why it happened is a task for all of us who care about democratic process.

Francisco Rodríguez It was fraude. Im from Ecuador. It was an obvious fraud

NO.ME CANSARE DE ENVIAR LA PORQUERIZA DE VOTANTES DEL CARTON

🤦🏽 Y en caso de problemas actuará Diana Salazar...😉

Francisco Rodríguez It was a fraud..! That's all...! Noboa is not a legitimated president..! The regime has tried to make us to belleve that they have enough popular support But in reality they don't..!

Francisco Rodríguez Noboa es el resultado de un proceso fraudulento. Será un Presidente sin legitimidad democrática. Los votos desviados de Luisa hacia Noboa NUNCA los va a tener. Sabe q la gente NO le respalda, tiene miedo y persigue. Hay que sentar precedentes y evitar otros FRAUDES en elecciones.

¡CONFIRMADO! Hoy, a las 10:57 AM, aterrizó en #Guayaquil el vuelo chárter CTR N570T con decenas de ecuatorianos deportados desde #EEUU. Una vez más, se cae la farsa de #DanielNoboa. Aseguró que #Ecuador ya no estaba en la lista de deportaciones tras un supuesto acercamiento con

Certainly