Over the last four weeks, the Chuck complex has seen prices rally 18%. Last week's price reached 31% higher than last year and 45% above the 3-year average.

Weekly beef cow slaughter has averaged 39,414 head during the last four weeks of confirmed federally inspected reports. Compared to last year, that was roughly 21% less.

JPM FOMC odds. Two stand out: 1% chance of a rate hike. This would confirm the Fed was never actually independent but is driven by whoever occupies the White House. 7.5% chance of 50bps rate cut. Market could drop 1.5% or rise 1.5%

Beef imports from Australia surged 44% from the prior week to 12,662 MT, marking the largest weekly volume on record. Australian lean trim prices climbed to a new high last week. Will the price spread between domestic and Australian 90s remain wide enough to support larger

From January through August, the cattle placed on feed weighing less than 600 pounds declined 285,000 head or roughly 10% from last year.

Recently, the volume of fed cattle purchased via the negotiated methods dropped below 53,000. Seasonally, it is common for higher volume to trade in the coming weeks. Are supplies large enough to approach last year's volume in late October or early November?

After making a new high for the year, the chuck complex declined to the lowest price since June on this week's comprehensive cutout report.

Just to be clear allowing Brazil to ship beef in without tariffs will have minimal effect on retail beef prices. May lower 90's a little and hurt cow and bull prices a bit. We are getting plenty of lean beef out of Az as they are out of drought and have plenty of beef to sell

After a week filled with more questions than answers, one question that is worth asking is, what has changed scientifically that would allow for the border to re-open to Mexican cattle? We can rule out a reduction in human cases based on a simple AI search.

The estimated fed beef production was just 427 million pounds last week, or roughly 7% below last year. Over the last 6 weeks, the average has been 5% less than the same period in 2024.

Fed cattle harvest in Western Canada fell to 30,148 head during the week of November 3rd. Steer slaughter was down 7% from a year ago, while heifer slaughter was 44% below last year.

The USDA resumed regular Federally Inspected slaughter reporting this week after the government shutdown concluded. Latest data shows steer carcass weights averaged 980 pounds for the week ending November 8 — up 21 pounds from the last reported week ending September 13.

The Brazilian government released its third-quarter slaughter estimates this month, suggesting that slaughter averaged ~3.74 million head per month compared to last year's average of ~3.5 million head per month. Slaughter peaked during July at ~3.83 million head, being the

Slaughter in Western Canada is down 7.6% from last year and 11% less than the 3-year average. Through the week ending November 22nd, approximately 244,300 fewer cattle have been harvested in W. Canada than the 3-year average. 

Beef shipments to Hong Kong in the latest data (week of October 13th due to gov't shutdown) reached the highest volume so far in 2025. At 1,273 MT, that was more than double the 3-year average.  

During the week ending November 28th, beef imports passed for US entry saw a seasonal drop, yet at 24,496 MT, was down 7.8% from last year and the smallest volume of 2025. 

Fed cattle harvest volume was 490k last week. Estimated fed beef production was the highest of the year and ~2.7% higher than 2024. Boxed beef sales didn't appear to keep up. Can shortened Holiday harvest schedules lessen the impact of "extra" uncommitted boxes this week?

Holy sh*t. That's why you have to put ego aside sometimes and tap.