Non-commercials added to net shorts in 10-year note futures; holdings more than cut in half from mid-Jan record. Between last Oct and Dec, $TNX (4.5%) went from 5% to 3.79% before rising. This week's ↓ comes after 2 weekly spinning tops and a shooting star. Next support low-4.3s

Non-commercials cut back but stay net long e-mini $SPX futures. Cash recovers from Thu's low 5011 to end week up 0.6% to 5128, essentially at 50-DMA (5130). Bulls were denied at the average on Mon as well; should it get taken out next week -- likely -- next hurdle at 5170s. $SPY

Dovish message can translate into sticky inflation through wealth effect from #stocks and home prices. $SPX #FOMC hedgopia.com/dovish-message…

With last week's huge rally on the back of results from primarily $MSFT and $GOOG, tech's fate this week rides on #FOMC and results from $AAPL and $AMZN. $NDX $SPX hedgopia.com/for-equities-t…

Non-commercials' net shorts in $VIX futures at 25-week low, nearing Oct 31st low, which was lowest since Jan '19. Vol tumbles from Apr 19th high 21.36 to today's low 14.92. 50- and 200-day at 14.80s just underneath -- bad news for equity bulls if these averages get defended. $SPX

Non-commercials remained net long e-mini $SPX futures for 2nd week running. Cash (5100), after losing 5.9% intraday between Mar 28th and Apr 19th, snapped back w/ 2.7% rally. Fri's high 5115 just about tested 50-DMA (5124); index under average for 10 sessions now. $SPY

Sentiment takes hit post-recent drop in #stocks , but nowhere near last October's low, forget Oct '22 low. $SPX hedgopia.com/investor-senti…

Equity bulls on back foot last 3-4 weeks and should continue to do so mid- to long-term but have opportunity to put foot down near-term. $SPX $NDX $RUT $VIX hedgopia.com/with-equities-…

How #hedgefunds are positioned in futures. $TNX $TYX $SPX $RUT $NDX $VIX $GLD $EUR $USD $WTI hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-…

$TNX goes from last Dec's 3.8% to Tue's 4.7%. Non-commercials cashing in; net shorts in 10-year note futures ↓ 59% from mid-Jan's record. Rates (4.62%) giving out signs of a peak, having ticked 5% last Oct; ↑ both this week and last, but w/ weekly shooting star and spinning top

Non-commercials switched to net long e-mini $SPX futures, which, except for 2 weeks last Oct, is the 1st since Jun '22. From late-Mar peak, cash (4967) ↓ 5.7%. Daily oversold, but if weekly prevails, room for more downward pressure. Breakout retest of Jan '22 high 3% away. $SPY

$SPX and $NDX right on 50-DMA, $RUT with slight breach. Large- and small-cap bulls' mettle being tested. hedgopia.com/sp-500-and-nas…

How #hedgefunds are positioned in futures. $TNX $TYX $SPX $RUT $NDX $VIX $GLD $EUR $USD $WTI hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-…

After 2 weeks, non-commercials switch back to net long #Nasdaq (mini) futures. $NDX down 3 weeks in a row, but tech bulls clinging on to 18000 horizontal support, which coincides w/ 50-day at 17984. Likely breach ahead. Major US tech outfits do not report until late Apr-early May

Non-commercials' net shorts in e-mini $SPX futures at 18-week low. After facing stiff resistance at 5260s, cash (5123) down 2 weeks in a row. Fri, 50-day (5111) was defended, but with bears now emboldened, bulls' mettle will be seriously tested next wk. S/T support at 5050s. $SPY

1Q earnings season begins amid collapse in bearish sentiment and sideways $SPX. #stocks hedgopia.com/1q24-earnings-…

2 things jump out in this #CPI chart. (1) Y/Y, core has persisted higher than headline since Mar '23. (2) Disinflation no more. Headline #inflation has hooked up last 2 months and core last 1. #Fed #economy

Federal debt ($34.6tn), up fourfold last 17 years, doubled in last decade alone. Since Great Recession, it is taking increasingly more debt to produce same amount of output. #economy

For 1st time ever, annualized federal interest payments crossed $1tn in 4Q23. This just about doubled in three years, as debt load ballooned and interest rates firmed up. This is one reason why #Fed would not want to keep rates higher for longer. #economy