> open Polymarket looking for something to trade > see a market called "Elon Musk # tweets this week" > think it's a joke > click anyway > polymarket.com/event/elon-mus… > $23,000,000 in volume > there's a real-time tracker counting every post he makes > 30 different outcomes to trade >

Nobody talks about what this oil market actually is It looks like an oil price bet It's not It's a ceasefire probability meter in disguise polymarket.com/event/what-pri… $120 at 74% - Iran conflict cools, oil stabilizes $140 at 24% - strikes resume, war premium returns $80 at 16% -

Everyone on Polymarket is trying to predict the future A small group just copies someone who already figured it out One wallet Verified edge Every move public and on-chain You find it here: ratio.you/r/H8KPKMBB You mirror it You collect The prediction was never yours to

Markets always knew before you did Bitcoin dropped 3 days before the Fed announcement Oil moved 6 hours before the Iran strike The election was called on prediction markets 4 hours before CNN Everyone was watching the news The news was watching the markets The crowd that put

Q1 was just warm-up for me More to come Breaking the limits

Great thread on building an LLM for trading But there are 5 critical gaps that can blow your account if you miss them Red flag #1: Sharpe ratio of 27–40 in backtests Renaissance Technologies - the greatest hedge fund ever - runs ~2–3 A Sharpe of 40 = lookahead bias. Future

3 months ago Bitcoin was at $111,000 Everyone was euphoric Everyone was buying Prediction markets had a different read polymarket.com/event/what-pri… Bitcoin hitting $60,000 in 2026 - 40% probability Right when the charts looked perfect The crowd posting green portfolios was the

If you still don't believe we are at the bottom now just watch it and make the right decision

He didn't predict a single market Just shared a link 10 days $6,077 in referral rewards poly.market/wallet-with-re… How much have you made from referrals this week?

Was in an Adidas store in Vietnam yesterday The sales girl was checking my shoes for a price tag Opened her phone to look it up I saw Claude on her screen Asked what she uses it for "Just to make life easier" she said I showed her Polymarket Then showed her what Claude helps

She asked me what the wallet actually does Here's what I showed her The bot doesn't guess which way Bitcoin moves It waits until a Bitcoin market is 98-99% decided Then buys the winning side before it closes 2¢ profit per trade Hundreds of times a day And when it does bet

Say goodbye to Polygon! Welcome Polymarket USD Literally the last chance to farm $POLY before the launch Start now or regret later: polymarket.com/?r=explore

$6,077 in 10 days He posted nothing I checked his account Last post - months ago No referral content, no promo, nothing But the wallet kept getting paid My theory: He just pointed his trading bot to new account under a referral link Bot runs like normal 1.8% of every dollar

Everyone here knows the edge Follow the smart money Copy the whale wallets Use referrals before the token drops Nobody does it They read the thread Screenshot the wallet Close the tab The wallets worth copying are sitting right there on ratio.you/r/H8KPKMBB Most people

I deleted my weather app Not because it was wrong Because it wasn't paying me Polymarket launched weather markets Will it rain in London tomorrow Will NYC hit 90°F this week Simple yes/no I've been using it as my actual forecast for 3 weeks And collecting on the ones I get

81% win rate $106,000 in profit He never touched a single political market His entire edge is weather Here's how ColdMath does it Temperature markets on Polymarket ask: "Will the highest temp in [city] on [date] be exactly X°C?" Each specific 1°C range has roughly 10-15%

This wallet had a $200k PnL Then one trade happened US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? He bet No at 97¢ $729,625 in size It resolved Yes -$697,825 in a single position Total PnL: -$621,255 Full wallet - polymarket.com/@istaroth?r=ex… Every influencer was calling it free money "97%