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#Eritrea & the #US ready for a new relationship. US congratulated #Eritrea w its independence & signalled its willingness to develop ties w the gov in #Asmara. #Trump even sent a personal message to #Afwerki that he wishes to work w him on security. #Ethiopia #Assab #Houthis

#Ethiopian pm #Abiy’s #Redsea ambition is in essence one of theft. As a sovereign country, under intl. law & the #UNcharter #Eritrea has the right to refuse to do business with any country. Port access is a business deal subject to mutual consent. #Addis #Sudan #Houthi #Trump

It seems the fed gov of #Ethiopia tries to punish #Tigray by reimposing a siege on it. Goods from #Afar restricted to enter Tigray. #TPLF trading w #Eritrea which alleviates shortages. #ENDF preparing for a war of aggression by buying EW & reconnaissance vehicles. #Asmara #Sudan

#Trump facing hardship as he wants to walk away from #Ukraine (but risks too high) & to economically lure #Russia from #China. So a fragile peace needed first. Putin not listening. More sanctions might not help & more weapons to #Kiev will anger #US voters. #Gaza #Iran #Moscow

#Egypt looking to buy 5th gen jets from #China (#J35) as tensions w #Israel (#Gaza), #Ethiopia (#GERD) & the #Houthis (#Redsea) rise & #Cairo wants to reduce dependence of the #US. Ties betw #Cairo & #Beijing have been expanding w regular military drills being held. #Asmara #Kiev

#ISW: #Ukrainian gov sources estimate the #Kremlin has a stockpile of 500 ball. missiles & is increasing its production of #Shahed drones (currently 100 a day) to 500 a day. #Moscow is also innovating its drones to circumvent #Ukraine’s defenses. #Putin wants total capitulation.

#Ethiopia’s #Abiy faces 2 civil wars in #Amhara #Oromia, 2 more potential wars w #Tigray & #Eritrea, a uprising by medical workers that might expand, millions in #famine & high inflation. He tours #Europe to get backing for action against #TPLF, his #Redsea plan & financial aid.

#Trump🇺🇸 backed out of the #Redsea quick after losing 2 jets & 7 multi mln #reaper drones (shot down by the #Houthis). US spent > $1Bln but Houthis dispersed & concealed. Their #airdefense is surprisingly effective. A lesson for those dependent on #drones like #Ethiopia. #Eritrea

#US dumped #Ethiopia’s #Abiy as a anchor for #Kenya after #Tigraywar which pushed #Addis towards #Russia. While he toured Europe, his general was in #Moscow upgrading strategic & military ties w #Putin. Abiy delicately balancing ties as he is dependent on western fin aid. #Asmara

During #Ethiopia’s #Mengistu era, it had superpower help, a functioning state, air superiority & diplomatic legitimacy. Now #Eritrea is a state w its own diplomatic identity, asymmetric tools of influence (a tested military & intell.) & Ethiopia lost its cohesion. #Asmara #Sudan

The brotherly ppl of #Ethiopia & #Eritrea need peace. An #ENDF attack on #Assab would very likely trigger an #Eritrean #Tigrayan counter from #Tigray & the north pincering 🇪🇹’s #Afar & cutting #ENDF supply lines. Local Afar might assist #EDF🇪🇷. #Amhara #Fano would grab its chance

#Ukraine launched one of the most audacious drone attacks on the #Russian #airforce reaching as far as #Siberia & hit 40+ warplanes at several #military airfields. Smuggled drones were launched from trucks inside #Russia & damage totals > $2 billion. #Kiev #NATO #Gaza #Israeli

#ISW: #Ukraine (SBU)🇺🇦 said the large drone attack cost #Russia roughly $7 billion & destroyed 34% of #Russian strategic cruise missile carriers. This will at least temporarily constrain #Moscow’s ability to conduct long range drone & missile strikes. #Kiev #Odessa #Israeli #NATO

#Ethiopia’s #debt🇪🇹 increased by 25% over the last 4 years reaching $69 billion in 2024. Of this, 29% is owed to foreign creditors and 46% is denominated in #US #Dollars leaving #Ethiopians vulnerable to the exchange rate when the #Dollar strengthens. #Abiy #Gaza #Eritrea #Asmara

#ISW: #Russia🇷🇺 likely to struggle to replace the aircraft #Ukraine destroyed w its large surprise drone attack. #Moscow had less than 10 #A50s in operation on june 1 & a single #A50 costs $500 million. #Kiev destroyed some strategic bombers #Putin currently doesnt produce. #Kiev

#Ukrainian attack on #Russian #airfields described as ‘brilliant’. Smuggled drones were launched from trucks in #Russia. It took 1.5yrs of preparation & involved #Zelensky. High costs for #Moscow as it’ll have to move #warplanes constantly, redistribute #airdefense & check trucks

#Eritrea🇪🇷 was a big reason why #Mengistu fell, as it won many battles & trained its now ally #TPLF. Its very likely #Asmara had a hand in unifying #Fano. If Abiy attacks, this trio could counter from #Amhara where #drones are less effective than in #Afar & topple #Abiy in #Addis

#Russia’s #PearlHarbour🇷🇺 has led to intens criticism of #Putin & pressure on #Moscow to respond w #nuclear #weapons. The #Ukrainian attack represents a stunning #intel. failure & led to a furious Putin looking to punish those responsible of the #FSB. #Kiev #Telaviv #Gaza #Trump

#OperationSpiderweb is a strategic win for #Ukraine as it sign. degraded #Russian #strategic assets & hit five zones inside #Russia. It forces #Putin to reallocate his #defense to the rear & boosts #Ukrainians’ #morale & leverage. The #Russians still have #longrange capabilities.

#Hemedti’s accusation that #Eritrea🇪🇷 is behind #RSF’s losses confirms #Asmara’s ability to deploy support across borders covertly & w impact, showing real power projection. 🇪🇷also trains #Somalia’s army & is allied w the #TPLF & #Fano making it the most powerful Horn country atm