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As we all wait on today's tariffs announcement, good time to check out NYT's coverage of CNAS' trade war game from earlier this week!!

USTR's explanation, basically this in fancier economic language: ustr.gov/issue-areas/re… Lol at assuming "general equilibrium effects are small enough to be ignored" - we're upending the global economic order, I think the general equilibrium effects are going to be pretty big!

One more dunk on economists, while I'm at: Hope all the people mocking Trump admin calculating unfair trade practices as an unobserved residual also have a long think about "total factor productivity" as an analytically tractable concept 😁

Should be an interesting event 👇 Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran on the Trump Administration’s Economic Agenda hudson.org/events/chairma…

🚨Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs🚨 Listen to the latest Derisky Business from Emily Kilcrease and geoffrey gertz on everything you need to know about the global effects of Trump's tariff announcement. cnas.org/publications/p…

Are there any contrarian centrist/pragmatist wonks making the argument "yes, a tariff is a tax on Americans, but it's good we're raising taxes because we need to restore some fiscal responsibility" ? linkedin.com/posts/geoffrey…

This is notable, after reports last week admin was leaning toward approving H20 sales. A data point suggesting the China hawks still have some influence in admin deliberations ...

Wild that iFLYTEK - a Chinese tech company sanctioned by the USG for human rights violations in Xinjiang - is apparently now advertising on Twitter ?!

If the US makes access to AI chips part of trade negotiations unrelated to nat sec concerns, it will validate the longstanding suspicion globally that export controls are just about ensuring US hegemony. Will erode others’ willingness to comply, and we can’t enforce ourselves.

The Administration is considering changes to the Framework for AI Diffusion. We at @CNAS propose 5 objectives to guide the future of export controls and AI diffusion, to protect and promote America's AI leadership.

"The president recently questioned why the US can’t sell chips to a nation approved to buy F-35 fighter jets..." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Some quick thoughts on the Irish Data Protection Commission determination that China's national security laws do not provide GDPR equivalent privacy protections - a welcome if long overdue development! linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

🎙️This week on Derisky Business🎙️ Emily Kilcrease and geoffrey gertz break down what was a seismic first 100 days in trade policy. 🎧Listen wherever you get your podcasts🎧 cnas.org/publications/p…

👀👀 I think this is the first publicly reported enforcement case of the new outbound investment restrictions (though as article makes clear, no determination yet Benchmark violated rules...)

Join us for the CNAS annual conference tomorrow - full star studded list of speakers in the thread below!

Though Trump’s tariffs have been needlessly chaotic and costly, there remains a narrow window for a positive outcome to the trade wars. Read more from Emily Kilcrease and geoffrey gertz in Foreign Affairs: cnas.org/publications/c…