Kamala Harris would lose the 2024 election if held today. Currently, Harris has an adjusted Job Approval of just 45.5%. Job Approval predicts vote share with great accuracy and has been much better than any polling average. Should Harris receive 45.5% nationally, she’d

2024 Senate Map prediction (8/27/24): GOP: 54 seats DEM: 46 seats Key Races: AZ: Lake +0.5% NV: Rosen +0.9% MT: Sheehy +5.0% WI: Baldwin +2.1% MI: Rogers +0.2% PA: Casey Jr. +3.4% OH: Moreno +2.7% NM: Heinrich +9.5% TX: Cruz +13.5% FL: Scott +11.1% VA: Kaine +8.6%

Trump currently holds a national lead in my 2024 election model. Vote Share: Trump: 48.9% (+2.2) Harris: 46.7% Third Party: 4.4% Harris has been gaining nationally as of recently, but Trump has been holding steady at about 49%. If Trump is able to retain this vote share through

2024 Election Map Forecast (9/1/24): Electoral College: Trump: 312 Harris: 226 National Vote Share: Trump: 48.9% (+2.2) Harris: 46.7% Third Party: 4.4% (includes data w/ RFK) Swing States: WI: +4.7% Trump MI: +3.0% Trump PA: +5.1% Trump NC: +8.1% Trump GA: +6.6% Trump AZ:

You’ve just made the biggest miscalculation of your political career. Mark my words, Allan. Your 13 Keys will be proven wrong in November.

Trump wins the White House in 2024 according to Allan Lichtman’s 13 keys when applied CORRECTLY. Key 1 (False): 100% objective Key 2 (True): There wasn’t a proper open primary process with Harris. Had there been one, this key likely would have been false, but I’ll give it to

2024 Election Map Pre-Debate (9/10/24): Electoral College: Trump: 312 Harris: 226 National Vote Share: Trump: 49.4% (+2.1) Harris: 47.3% Thirds: 3.3% Swing States: WI: +4.4% Trump MI: +2.7% Trump PA: +4.8% Trump NC: +7.8% Trump GA: +6.3% Trump AZ: +6.7% Trump NV: +6.1% Trump

2024 Election Map Update (9/19/24): Electoral College: Trump: 313 ✅ Harris: 225 Vote Share: Trump: 49.9% (+2.5) Harris: 47.4% Third Party: 2.7% Swing States: WI: Trump +4.9% MI: Trump +3.2% PA: Trump +5.4% NC: Trump +8.3% GA: Trump +6.8% AZ: Trump +7.2% NV: Trump +6.6%

Trump expands his national lead to +2.7 points over Harris in my national model. He’s currently at 50.0% nationally while Harris is at 47.32%. Harris’ increase in support seems to have stalled, indicating that the current undecideds are decisively breaking for Trump. If

The best recent historical tracker of the Popular Vote (Gallup) is currently indicating an R+3 national environment for 2024. The swing states would be blowout victories for Trump in that scenario. He’d win them by an average of around 6-7 points. My national model is also

2024 Election Map Update (9/26/24): Electoral College: Trump: 313 ✅ Harris: 225 National Vote Share: Trump: 50.21% (+2.76) Harris: 47.45% Thirds: 2.34% Swing States: WI: Trump +5.2% MI: Trump +4.0% PA: Trump +6.1% NC: Trump +8.6% GA: Trump +6.6% AZ: Trump +7.5% NV: Trump

2020 Election Model: 50/50 states correct: ✅ PV Margin: Biden +4.77 (+0.27 Dem error) Swing State Margins: NV: Biden +1.5 (+0.90 Rep error) AZ: Biden +0.2 (+0.11 Rep error) GA: Biden +0.7 (+0.49 Dem error) NC: Trump +1.3 (+0.05 Rep error) PA: Biden +2.2 (+0.92 Dem

Atlas was very accurate in 2020, but I’m not buying these margins. Comparing these state results with their recent national poll of Trump +3.6, all 7 swing states would be voting to the left of the country. That’s not happening. I’m much more inclined to trust their national

2024 Election Map Update (9/29/24): Electoral College: Trump: 313 ✅ Harris: 225 National Vote Share: Trump: 50.3% (+2.8) Harris: 47.6 Third Party: 2.1% Swing States: WI: +5.7% Trump MI: +4.0% Trump PA: +6.1% Trump NC: +8.6% Trump GA: +6.6% Trump AZ: +7.5% Trump NV: +7.4%

2024 Election Forecast Update (10/2/24): Electoral College: 🔴 Trump: 313 ✅ 🔵 Harris: 225 National Vote Share: 🔴 Trump: 50.4% (+2.9) 🔵 Harris: 47.5% 🟣 Third Party: 2.1% Swing States: WI: +5.7% Trump 🔴 MI: +4.0% Trump 🔴 PA: +6.1% Trump 🔴 NC: +8.6% Trump 🔴 GA: +6.6%

2024 National Vote Share Model: 🔴 Trump: 50.4% (+2.9) 🔵 Harris: 47.5% 🟣 Third Party: 2.1% Trump is currently on pace to be the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to receive over 50% of the National Vote. A popular vote win for Trump of any margin

Favorability (RCP): 🔴 Trump 2020: 41.8% 🔴 Trump 2024: 44.7% 🔵 Biden 2020: 50.3% 🔵 Harris 2024: 48.2% Trump is considerably stronger than he was in 2020, and Harris is weaker than Biden was in 2020. This alone should tell you how things are looking right now.

2024 Election Map Projection (10/4/24): Electoral College: 🔴 Trump: 313 ✅ 🔵 Harris: 225 National Vote Share: 🔴 Trump: 50.5% (+3.1) 🔵 Harris: 47.4% 🟣 Third Party: 2.1% Swing States: 🔴 WI: +5.6% Trump 🔴 MI: +4.4% Trump 🔴 PA: +6.5% Trump 🔴 NC: +9.0% Trump 🔴 GA: