Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile
Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ

@gabeecon

Free Markets. Free People. Using economics to create a better world. Undergraduate studying Econ and Math

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calendar_today29-12-2021 20:29:59

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Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I always find it funny as a Jew when people claim Jews are working together to control the world. Have they ever tried to get Jews in a room together and get them to agree on anything?

Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

It looks like itโ€™s time for a rate cut, but I still believe the Fed is in a difficult position. Economic growth numbers have been strong, including forecasts for next quarter and inflationary pressures are still present.

Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

In sum, we are seeing a big slowdown in labor supply and some weakness in labor demand. Not a whole lot the Fed can do when the biggest problem is not enough people. But it can and will cut rates, given inflation risks I would limit that to 25bp at the next meeting.

Melissa S. Kearney (@kearney_melissa) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Wow. Lots to see here. Crazy gender differences! Also, when Iโ€™ve referred to โ€œshifting prioritiesโ€ as an explanation for why people arenโ€™t having kids, these are the kinds of rankings I have in mind, eg, career success or being debt free as more important than having children-

Steven Pinker (@sapinker) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The French Revolution was a disaster: killed 2 million people, led to the rise of Napoleon--perhaps the world's first totalitarian fascist dictator, who began wars of conquest that killed an additional 4 million people, led to the restoration of slavery, to the restoration of the

Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) 's Twitter Profile Photo

In the last few years we've seen: - The plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer - The Storming of the Capitol and pipe bombs left at the RNC and DNC - The break-in to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and the brutal on Paul Pelosi - Multiple assassination attempts against Trump - The assassination

Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as the unemployment rate continues to rise, job growth slows, and now inflation continues to pick up. There are no good options for the Fed given the set of circumstances we're facing.

Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Core CPI was 3.6% annual rate over last 3 months. That would put it at the 98th percentile of 1992-2019 experience. That's the problem we've had for the past few yrs. Inflation about average for good stretches. But during bad stretches it's almost off the carts. Avg is too high.

Core CPI was 3.6% annual rate over last 3 months. That would put it at the 98th percentile of 1992-2019 experience.

That's the problem we've had for the past few yrs. Inflation about average for good stretches. But during bad stretches it's almost off the carts. Avg is too high.
Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Conservatives were never serious about free speech. Besides calling for imminent lawless action or harassment of others, colleges should adopt maximum protections for free speech. This includes for statements we find abhorrent.

Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The Fed is in a challenging position tomorrow. Inflation remains elevated (Core CPI 3.1% in August and Core PCE 2.9% in July). If a real shock has hit the labor market, I'm not sure theres much the Fed can do right now.

Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One question I have recently been thinking about, which seems controversial, is whether the Fed tightened monetary policy enough. Inflation has remained elevated since its peak in the summer of 2022 and has never really returned to target.

Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

"Demand shocks are the main drivers of the inflation surge in the United States, the euro area, and in four small open economies." aeaweb.org/articles?id=10โ€ฆ

Gabe Econ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐ŸŒ (@gabeecon) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Across 7 different rules for setting monetary policy, the median Federal Funds Rate should be set at 4.33% in Q3. If the labor market is weakening due to a real shock, the Fed's rate cut risks undermining price stability. clevelandfed.org/indicators-andโ€ฆ

Mean Field Zane โœ๏ธ (@mean_field_zane) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Finally, some more evidence for Team Raise Rates. I have a feeling price stability is heavily underweighted right now compared to the labour market. The Fed canโ€™t fix structural labour market issues with inflation.