What: defaulted Chinese RE developers owe international bondholders Why it matters: last year developers missed payments on $30B worth of bonds held by global investors The sector remains soft with unit sales up YoY for the first time since mid-2021 wsj.com/articles/china…

What: Inflation is back on the rise in the UK Why it matters: the ECB raised 50 bps last week, and today the Fed decides hike-or-hold (cons 25 bps raise) Kicker: The Fed is stuck between its mandates of financial stability and stable prices cnbc.com/2023/03/22/uk-…

Interesting housing price disparities between East and West - whether due to job market mixes, zoning laws, or general state level politics, the west coast is seeing prices fall wsj.com/articles/home-…

The only rate cut scenario is systematic failure and widespread contagion (which I believe would come from Commercial RE and shadow debt)… that being said there would be more capitulation before cuts bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

What: High end vacancies are rising Why it matters: Higher vacancy rates put pressure on landlords ability to service debt The impact: more defaults in the Commercial RE space unless landlords refi at higher rates or sell wsj.com/articles/distr…

RIP Decentraland wsj.com/articles/the-m…

Fed expected to raise 25 bps on Wednesday bringing Fed Rate to 5-5.25%. Market/media signaling this is the end of the hikes, but further tightening pre-recession could win the inflation battle and give the Fed more room to cut rates down the road bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Good recap from BRK annual meeting - Occidental, US default, and Taiwan bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China TTM share of US imports falls to lowest level since Oct 2006, APAC ex China, Mexico, and Europe share grows… the pivot to primarily Mexico is the next leg wsj.com/articles/u-s-i…

Bond markets pricing for sustained uncertainty and possible 25 bps hike in June or July meeting… equities entering new “bull market” with SPY +20% off the bottom Dollar holds strength following Canada’s 25bps hike and expected ECB hike next week bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Germany GDP flat vs Q1 citing slump in demand for consumer goods and specialty products amid rising rate environment. France up 0.5% Q/Q. Flat Q/Q GDP growth ends a 2 quarter stretch of declines. The ECB raised key rates 25bp yesterday. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Following increased tax on high-income earners (with no deductions) and slower than pitched progress on local issues, Portland sees tax revenue down $1B. Interested to see how many people buy condos at the brand new Ritz Residence downtown. oregonlive.com/data/2023/07/m…

The US default risk will continue to grow as the Treasury issues more debt at higher rates. Unfortunately the era of easy money is likely over. In a higher-for-longer environment, deficits will matter more. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

After over a year of Chinese real estate being in a state of default, Chinese shadow bank misses payments/pauses redemptions. They manage ~$139B. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Savings rate down to 3.5% and excess savings nearly depleted. Labor market getting more competitive: openings are dropping and participation is rising. Inflation is seemingly stickier, especially in housing. Wage power will soon dip below inflation. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

PPI for final demand advances 0.5% in September; goods rise 0.9%, services increase 0.3% bls.gov/news.release/p… #PPI #BLSdata

What: the lack of CRE transactions since Covid have allowed REITs and landlords to mark-to-value their properties above their true value Why it matters: lenders could see massive losses should borrowers default or sell the property at a steep discount bloomberg.com/news/features/…