The good old days of critical thinking 🤣

International stocks are on pace for their best year since 2009 (world ex-US +22% YTD). The Eurozone is leading all regions (+30% YTD), on pace for its best year since 2003. The top country performer? Greece (+74%). Video: youtube.com/watch?v=y-XQbm…

The S&P 500 is now trading at over 3.2x sales, its highest valuation in history. $SPX Video: youtube.com/watch?v=y-XQbm…

Opportunity Doesn’t Wait. The Time Is 𝐍𝐨𝐰. #HailState

Other highlights from Goolsbee's videoconference with reporters: • He still sees the labor market as solid. Warned against over-indexing on payroll growth when supply is also facing headwinds • He's not ready to say tariff-driven price rises are a "one and done" because that

The gap between 2-year and 30-year US yields has steepened to the widest in three years.

NEW ODD LOTS: The investors who think hazelnuts will be the next pistachios. Tracy Alloway and I talked to frontier market investors Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev, who talk to us about a possible supply/demand mismatch in hazelnuts podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

30y mortgage rate has fallen to 6.67% but is almost unchanged year/year

S&P 500 Cumulative/Annualized Total Returns by Decade... 1930-39: -9%/-1% 1940-49: +126%/+9% 1950-59: +492%/+19% 1960-69: +111%/+8% 1970-79: +78%/+6% 1980-89: +396%/+17% 1990-99: +433%/+18% 2000-09: -9%/-1% 2010-19: +256%/+14% 2020-25 YTD: +118%/+15% $SPX

The risk is here. Producer margins have increased. Final demand trade services rose roughly 2% over the month implying a meaningful increase in the margins received by wholesalers. Producers have increased prices above costs, which means they have room to pass on the costs of

The increase in PPI was driven by services, and there were increases in general services costs *and* in the Trade component (i.e. wholesale/retail margins). The Fed won't like this report.

Tariffs raise import costs, and wholesalers/retailers often hike markups to protect profits—pushing PPI “services” higher. Less foreign competition can also lift U.S.-made goods prices, so both goods and services PPI can climb even without stronger demand.

Usually, these forecasts are reasonably accurate. Now that the CPI and PPI data are out, it is just a matter of re-weighting them for PCE. Super Core 0.7% (Services x-Shelter) Core PCE 0.6% This is Powell's worst-case scenario for the last PCE report before he cuts rates.

The most expensive Econ 101 lesson yet.

Some hard issues here but if we’re being honest about the future of higher ed and research in the U.S., probably all but a few PhD admissions should be slashed

Thursday morning, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked about his comments Wednesday saying the Fed was behind and that rates should be lower by 1.5 to 1.75 pp, Bessent said he was not telling the Fed what to do. Here's his full exchange with Maria Bartiromo:

It's a great day to go 𝟏-𝟎! Hear more from Nick Zimmerman on the Dear Ol' State podcast available now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and HailState.com. 🎙️ hailst.at/45PWfVV #HailState🐶

Indeed. Was just looking at the Atlanta Fed website for the updated Taylor Rule estimates.

Huge thank you to everyone who came out tonight. No one is more disappointed than our players and staff to have to cancel our home opener. Mother Nature had other plans!! We look forward to seeing everyone next Thursday!!! Let’s pack the pitch!! #HailState 🐶

16/16 Given government control over the banking system and over the structure of liabilities, a debt crisis is extremely unlikely. The debate should really be about the extent to which rising debt is funding wealth destruction rather than wealth creation.