Chinese Equities are selling off on the report that AI isn't that great when China is the No. 1 counter to the AI giga-Capex story.

That 30y JGB auction tmrw will be interesting.

10y future reaches negative gamma. I would be surprised if the coordinated anti-Hassett push by WSJ and FT, isn't followed up by selling pressure. This is about control of the institution Fed, and the establishment won't let go easily

The game has gotten too rigged. Inflation resulting from wage growth is a concern and is typically addressed by central banks. Nobody fights Inflation from Oligopols, though

OBBB increases the 2026 calendar year deficit by ~$500bn. The market has begun front-running this: -higher yields -rotation out of AI into Consumer stocks, EQW The effect is blurred by Japanese yields, year-end effects (opecx), short-squeezes but this trend will continue

Good for oil, bad for gold

Oil and gas were the only factors holding yields back as we enter a reflationary 2026. Yields had it with the disinflationary growth fantasy. 30y is going back above 5%

Yields at large support here and unlikely to break out to new levels before the FOMC. Post FOMC, we will see carnage in the long end

The current strategy is to change the message but not the policies. bond yields will look through this and continue to climb.

Also Bessent: Huge tax cuts ($500bn higher deficit) will stimulate the economy in 2026 He is not serious and bond yields will make him

Asian markets are acting scary. I can't help to think that one of JGB/Nikkei/JPY will blow up big next year - best to stay away completely or play the tails via options