Disposable personal income fell by 0.6% in June ... first drop since January 2022

May personal income (blue) -0.4% vs. +0.3% est. & +0.7% prior (rev down from +0.8%) … personal spending -0.1% vs. +0.1% est. & +0.2% prior

'European stocks outperformed their US peers by the biggest margin on record in dollar terms during the first half, the most dramatic sign of how the region’s markets are staging a comeback after more than a decade in the doldrums.'-BBG

June Chicago PMI down to 40.4 vs. 42.9 est. & 40.5 prior … new orders fell at slower pace (in contraction); employment fell at faster pace (in contraction); production fell at faster pace (in contraction)

😂

narrowest ever breadth for ath

June ISM Manufacturing PMI up to 49.0 vs. 48.8 est. & 48.5 prior … new orders down to 46.4 vs. 47.6 prior; prices paid up to 69.7 vs. 69.4 prior … employment down to 45.0 vs. 46.8 prior

Rolling 6m sum of ⁦ChallengerGray⁩ job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions

United States plans broad chip curbs and restrictions on Malaysia, Thailand over China back door importing #MacroEdge

Surely this is because inflation is dead

U.S. exports fell by 4% in May … largest decline since dark days of pandemic and notable reversal from trend earlier this year

Consumer demand appears to be weakening. According to NFIB, more small firms reporting that their single most important problem is poor sales. Up to 10% in June, a fresh cycle high. Weak sales first, layoffs next?

Yikes. Capex component in NFIB small business optimism survey fell to 50 in June ... the lowest since June 2020

This is peak finance

Price pressures reaccelerating for ⁦NFIB⁩ small businesses, which are seeing higher prices now (blue) and are increasingly planning to raise their prices in 3 months (orange)

JUST IN 🚨: Investors have now plowed $135 Billion into Leveraged ETFs, the highest amount in history 🚨 Risk on folks, Risk on 🤑🫡🚀

Investors are now buying stocks on margin at levels never seen before in history 🚨🚨🚨

Short at will

Mark it

Core PCE will likely be firmer than core CPI in June. Durable goods have a larger weight in core PCE than core CPI and prices for consumer durables are climbing. Stock prices will also bleed into portfolio management.