Jag och Daniel Spiro kommenterade skuggflottan i Nyhetsmorgon i morse

Med tiden har Ryssland och allierade byggt upp en parallell tankerflotta som kringgår västs sanktioner och som dessutom utgör en stor miljörisk

tv4play.se/klipp/d23df07a…

Big new report “Back in Stock” from our Russia team on the impact of sanctions on Russia’s defense industry. Bottom line: Russia has adapted with the vital help of Beijing. Note exports in dual use goods from China to Russia skyrocket after Putin and Xi met in March 2023. 1/

Our latest FOI report is out, on the current challenges of assessing Russia's military capabilities. I contributed with a chapter on military spending.

Fully agree with everything president Stubb said here: “What I call on all European states to do is to become more Finnish. In other words, more prepared. You have to prepare for the worst in order to avoid it”

Do #sanctions work? Our recent collaboration with Chris Miller of American Enterprise Institute offers new data-driven insight into the ways in which sanctions have affected the Russian semiconductor industry. 🧵 1/

More 👇
aei.org/research-produ…

To create a better understanding of how technology is used in general, and how loitering munitions are used in particular, researchers at FOI have analysed how Russia has utilised its Lancet-3 loitering munition, a type of so-called suicide drone. tinyurl.com/9678xb6c

Ukrainian drones effect: Russian weekly gasoline production is down sharply, 14.3% below last year.

Chart shows 1,000 tons per week, source: MMI (Telegram).
Data source: Rosstat. rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediab…

New BOFIT forecast 2024–2026 for Russia’s economy is out! We forecast growth to decelerate to ~2% in 2024 before falling to further to ~1%, which is more or less Russia’s long-term growth potential. 🇷🇺

bofit.fi/en/bofit/lates…

The brilliant NOTS team at FOI has rolled out the first part of their flagship publication on Western Military Capability in Northern Europe. 👍

foi.se/en/foi/reports…

Fullständigt strålande! esvd.svd.se/shared/article…

A presidential election is currently being held in Russia. But how is #Russia doing? Read our latest .FREE NETWORK policy brief, authored by a new network of experts on Russian #sanctions (plus me)
freepolicybriefs.org/2024/03/14/san…

We can talk a lot about sanctions evasion by Turkey and Kazakhstan, but China is orders of magnitude more important.
Source: bruegel.org/dataset/russia…

Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long war. Although Russia has made painful adjustments to avoid economic collapse, economic growth is now generated by war and war-related expenditures.

Read Martin Kragh's Commentary on the Russian war economy 👇sceeus.se/en/publication…

I’ve done lots of in depth wonky think tank analysis on European defense but ultimately it all boils down to “just borrow the damn money.”

Thanks to Lili Bayer for reaching out.

theguardian.com/world/live/202…

Ukraine continues to target Russian oil infrastructure, this time in Belgorod. They may have found a real vulnerability: Small drones can have a big impact, it's hard to protect all objects, and there are potentially big economic/logistical implications.

kommersant.ru/doc/6552735

📌 1/6 Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦, in testimony for the Senate Homeland Security & Govt. Affairs Committee — Dems Homeland Security & Govt. Affairs Committee — Dems_GOP hearing on The U.S. Technology Fueling Russia's War in Ukraine, highlighted key issues and offered policy recommendations to stop the flow of critical components to the aggressor. 🧵👇