We were talking about the complete lack of reaction to very strong US data this AM & Eric Theoret tells me it's really best explained by this Kate McKinnon SNL clip, i.e. "we already know this!". Yah we laugh *and* get the trades right at the same time. popsugar.com/entertainment/…

After months of continued increases, the expected trajectory for the federal funds rate declined a bit this month. Is the dovish message of Powell et al finally starting to sink in? Maybe, but the trajectory is still way out of whack with the #Fed's message.

My fair value model for 10-year Treasury yield (orange), which is based on lumber prices (white), says that fair value for the 10-year yield is currently around 4.0% give or take...

The rise in core PCE in March is just the beginning of what Powell called "base effects and bottlenecks." The #Fed is looking through this #inflation as transitory—I agree and expect a return to below target inflation next year.

We recently published an update on our outlook for the #USD. More on our views and #marketoutlook below. livesocial.seismic.com/tmcvNm

#USD seasonals are typically bearish in Q2 and Q3. Here's what else you need to know. #marketoutlook livesocial.seismic.com/t_C4Gs

"An innovation that was supposed to displace the dollar as a medium of exchange has proved largely useless for buying legal things yet frighteningly effective at facilitating extortion" wsj.com/articles/crypt…

"Contrarianism is overrated. True contrarians never try to be contrarian. They merely try to be congruent and, only as a side effect, appear contrarian to the dissonant mob." ~Johnathan Bi H/T Liberty 💚🥃

#FX Snapshot - De-dollarization? Not Really - Russia's decision to cut the $USD holdings in its wealth fund is a psychological blow for the dollar but no more than that. gbm.scotiabank.com/content/dam/sc…

Dear Corporations, Thank you for your Pride tweets, packaging and merch. Now how are you applying pressure to oppose hateful anti trans bills in state legislatures across the country?

We're in the mid to late cycle, take less risk in credit and equity: Manulife’s Eric Theoret Eric Theoret Amanda Lang buff.ly/374ZeLa

Incredible inflection point

I joined BNN Bloomberg this morning to discuss the dual US-Canada jobs releases for January. Canada’s data were heavily impacted by the Omicron variant, while the US offered a huge upside surprise!

The Quantitative Tightening (QT) conversation is starting at the Fed as policymakers look to shrink the central bank's balance sheet. I've written a primer to help answer some questions around this topic. #marketoutlook #marketvolatility #federalreserve # livesocial.seismic.com/tbhrlF

The latest #FOMC minutes suggest that the #Fed will be delivering #QT at a faster pace than the previous episode #marketoutlook #marketvolatility #federalreserve livesocial.seismic.com/txeK1m

Markets have priced in an aggressive rate path for the ECB and the risk from here is one of disappointment, relative to market expectations. #marketoutlook #interestrates #inflation livesocial.seismic.com/tEpHJM

Great conversation with Nicole Petallides from the floor of the NYSE covering oil prices, inflation and the implications for markets

Great conversation this morning at Yahoo Finance discussing geopolitics, the Fed and the broader market’s tone.

I really enjoyed yesterday’s conversation with Nicole Petallides on the @TDANetwork covering the Fed, inflation, rate expectations, and their cross asset implications for markets.

Great conversation this morning with Yahoo Finance discussing inflation, the Fed, and risks for markets.