Eh, I think it's neither. Instead: - In certain cases, precision of language. Sometimes, "my prior is" is more precise than "I think that". - And then people get kinda sloppy and use it in places where "I think that" would work just as well, but without an intention to signal.

RIP Tom Lehrer (or shall I say, So Long, Tom). Your songs were an important part of growing up for me. I'll miss you.

I was at the SF Exploratorium yesterday, which featured an Anthropic-sponsored AI exhibition. It had an exhibit that downplays AI x-risk by comparing x-risk fears to fears about earlier technologies. Anthropic are you guys aware that this exhibit is being run in your name??

Are there any modern political satirists whose songs are as good as Tom Lehrer's were in the 1960s?

Wise words from Vitalik, as usual. Though it makes me wonder where to draw the line. I'm glad we banned slavery, for instance, rather than ending up with a "live and let live" compromise between northern and southern states. And what about factory farming?

I am an effective altruist and I eat meat although I think it's morally better to be vegan. Do any EAs out there have recommendations for good animal welfare charities to donate to, to offset my consumption?

Here's my map of states by how much I'd be willing to live in them

Manifold seems to be displaying my balance in base 2 🤔

New paper: We trained GPT-4.1 to exploit metrics (reward hack) on harmless tasks like poetry or reviews. Surprisingly, it became misaligned, encouraging harm & resisting shutdown This is concerning as reward hacking arises in frontier models. 🧵

Actually it should be called the Halfnian interpretation. This will definitely cause no confusion

Respondents—especially superforecasters—underestimated AI progress. Participants predicted the state-of-the-art accuracy of ML models on the MATH, MMLU, and QuaLITY benchmarks by June 2025. Domain experts assigned probabilities of 21.4%, 25%, and 43.5% to the achieved outcomes.

I remember when I was 8, my parents and I went to a buffet that was cheaper for kids 7 and under. My mom asked me if they could say that I'm 7 and I said no