XOM's fall from grace has been a long time coming and was evident from simple technical analysis: 1st, 7 year rounded top; 2nd, relative strength vs. S&P has been falling for 20 years. What more did you need to know? Simple usually works well enough!

XOM resembles GE in IMHO: A once great company builds a reputation for operational excellence and strong financial management. Things change. But investors cling to prior perceptions and lose money and suffer opportunity cost.

Lots of commentary on LT yields bottoming lately, but Utes breaking out of a 6 month base this week are telling a different story than bond market. My radar twitches when a theme gets so much attention. Interesting that XLU has been outperforming stocks since mid August, too.

1/1 On Tuesday, I posted this chart of the S&P reversing with a Shooting Star candle at the September peak (posted on Parley, not Twitter). Market trends are getting messier every day (see post 2/2 detailing investor sentiment warning).

2/2 The S&P 500 experienced a Shooting Star reversal candle at the September peak on Tuesday. Today, AAII investor sentiment suggests investors used the news of a Covid vaccine to become bullish at just the wrong time.

Some great thoughts about the need to be young in metabolic age from Pete Koch

Why do American League Central teams always have to start the year playing within division - in 30 degree snowy weather? West coast teams don't have to play in that weather nor burn out pitching staffs in August when makeup games, sometimes dbl headers, are played.

When you buy a stock, that's all you are buying. You're not buying the company, you have no role in managing the company, and you don't know as much about the company's fundamentals as you may think. The stock's behavior is the only concrete, objective information you have.

This needs no caption. The 2018 pic speaks for itself.

Credit spreads currently indicating heightened economic risk for the first time in two years, and stocks have reacted as expected. Still room for spreads to widen further, based on 4Q 2018 and 1Q 2020 experience. Honor stops and protect capital!

Today is a good example of why the market's first response to Fed actions is not reliable. Usually best to gauge the market's response 2-3 days later. Today (Day 2, and it's only half over) has wiped out nearly all of yesterday's gains.

Cramer on some big tech (AMZN, FB) stocks: “. . . the bottom line is they’ve fallen so darn far that I think they’ve become metaphors for a whole host of stocks that are now ready to rally because they’ve got nowhere else to go but up.” Me: Really? They could also go down 100%,

Good news, everybody, the crisis at a few banks is being carefully watched by Janet Yellen at theTreasury Department. Crisis averted! Wait, is this same Janet Yellen that didn't see the subprime mortgage crisis coming in 2008? finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-sa…

8/ If you found this thread interesting, even if you disagree, please like/RT the original thread and give me a follow! 🙏🙏 x.com/MWellerFX/stat…

Home builder stocks and related ETFs forming a bearish engulfing candle so far this morning, on well above average volume. This despite earnings reports that financial media says are good news.

The energy sector (XLE) appears to be stalling at a potential triple top (November 2022, Feb 2023, and Aug 2023), while Momentum is waning. Another negative: crude oil ($WTIC) is trapped below the anchored VWAP from the June 2023 high. Hard to get excited by energy here.

The sudden surge in the market this morning coincides with the drop in the US dollar. A weak dollar continues to be good for stocks.

Outside day in progress for NVDA - a bearish development in the short run.

Financial media reporting is worse than useless. This one from Marketwatch deserves an award for its effort to make the unimportant seem urgent: "European stocks weaken for first time in two days." Two whole days? 😆