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Jan 2, 2021 8 AM Pacific Prediction markets at 8 AM show little change from last night: Perdue (R) holds a 0.4-point lead lead over Ossoff (D), Warnock (D) holds a 0.4-point lead lead over Loeffler (R). Preference surveys (polls) show wide variability across the last three days.

Georgia Regular US Senate Runoff Election 2021-01-02 15:00:11 Pacific Prediction market estimates: David Perdue has a 55.9% chance of winning Jon Ossoff has a 44.1% chance of winning Republican chances have improved in the last day data-science-quarterly.com Northwestern Sources

Georgia Special Runoff Election 2021-01-02 15:00:11 Pacific Chance-of-winning estimates: Kelly Loeffler has a 44.7% chance Raphael Warnock has a 55.3% chance Democratic chances have improved in the last day data-science-quarterly.com anchor.fm/virtualtout/ Northwestern Sources

Sat Jan 2, 2021, 3 PM Pacific Prediction Market Results Regular election: David Perdue (R) has a 0.3-point lead over Jon Ossoff (D) Special election: Raphael Warnock (D) has a 0.4-point lead over Kelly Loeffler (R) Collecting survey data today. The Virtual Tout®

Jan 3, 7AM Pacific Update on Georgia Runoff Elections We now have four days of comparative data from preference and prediction surveys, matching up with the prediction markets. We continue to see wide variability in preference surveys (political polls) in these competitive races.

Jan 3, 9 PM Pacific A busy fifth day collecting additional preference and prediction survey responses. The market is moving in the direction of the Democrats, as we can see from each of the three measures in time. Check out the podcast on horizon charts at anchor.fm/virtualtout

January 4, 2021 4 AM Pacific President Trump continues to make claims of election fraud affecting the Georgia presidential election in November. Meanwhile Georgians look to tomorrow, a last day of in-person voting for the Senate runoff elections. One more day of data collection.

January 4, 2021 Comment on Election Forecasting Measurement and modeling go hand in hand. To learn the most from research, the same person (individual or team) should be involved in survey design/implementation and analysis/modeling. No blaming others when forecasts go wrong.

Georgia Regular US Senate Runoff Election 2021-01-05 12 AM Pacific Prediction market estimates suggest that David Perdue and Jon Ossoff have about an equal chance of winning this election. Democratic chances have improved in the last day, with Ossoff holding a 0.1-point lead.

Georgia Special Runoff Election 2021-01-05 12 AM Pacific Prediction market estimates: Raphael Warnock has a 59.6% chance of winning, as he appears to hold a 0.7-point lead over Kelly Loeffler. Democratic chances have improved in the last day. data-science-quarterly.com Northwestern Sources

January 5, 2021 12 AM Pacific Prediction markets favor Republicans, especially in Georgia, as we saw with the Nov. presidential election. Our own political polls, shown in the "Preference Survey" panels of this plot, have both Democratic candidates winning by more than 5 points.

Jan 5, 2021 1 AM Pacific Our prediction for the Georgia runoff elections: Jon Ossoff over David Perdue by 1 point, Raphael Warnock over Kelly Loeffler by 2 points. This prediction draws on preference surveys, prediction surveys and markets, as well as voter participation data.

We are in the news with election forecasting. news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/0… fortune.com/2021/01/05/geo…

Another article has been published describing our election forecasting methods as they played out in the Georgia runoff elections. fortune.com/2021/01/09/dat…

Learn more about political horizon charts from the working paper available on Data Science Quarterly: data-science-quarterly.com/articles/dsq-p… There is a cheat sheet for margin-of-victory and chance-of-winning scales: data-science-quarterly.com/articles/polit… Or listen to the podcast at anchor.fm/virtualtout

The next major US election day will be Tuesday, November 8, 2022. We can expect changes in congressional districts and voting rules. We need to learn from the past and do what we can to get trustworthy election forecasts. Welcome your ideas.

We had planned to do statewide forecasts for the midterm elections this November. But we failed to secure funding to conduct prediction surveys, which are a key component of our forecasts. Prediction surveys take on added value when prediction markets are unavailable.

Electoral College vote forecasts updated every minute on virtualtout.io