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It’s possible that Israel has some special opps plan for the hardest to destroy nuclear sites. If they destroyed the UF6 conversion plant at Isfahan, they might have ended the expansion of the stockpile. But it looks like the real Plan B is waiting for the USAF B-2s to arrive.

This means the war is open-ended, no clearly defined end state, just disparate pathways to a miraculous outcome. High hopes for a “gentleman caller” (Trump) to provide an exit ramp: either B-2s to finish the job or a Libya-style peace deal with Iran to dismantle its nuke sites

It would be highly optimistic to expect RU mediation to succeed. About zero leverage with either party.

This is the best case scenario but it hinges on Trump pressuring Israel with a cut-off in U.S. weapons deliveries, which even Biden did not risk doing under less challenging circumstances. So far it was Trump who yielded to Bibi’s pressure on Iran. foreignaffairs.com/israel/dont-gi…

With recent DOD deployments to the region, Trump has given himself the military option to destroy Fordow and perhaps some more. In case of US strikes, Israel might have to deploy SF units to secure the HEU supply if that were even possible. Unless Iran gives it away to Trump.

plan "B"...

Ru is under no obligation and has no capability to provide military assistance to Iran. But it has every incentive to appear "helpful" to Trump to end the war. Unclear if Ru could act as a channel to tell Iran "it's time to fold to Trump to ensure regime survival". Could be.

Good questions. As one U.S. general in Iraq put it a while back: tell me how this ends…

Might have to go in with boots on the ground to destroy Fordow and Isfahan tunnels without US bombing.

This sounds like Russian terms for Ukraine….

The U.S. has a vital interest in preventing a nuclear Iran. But it must not become a pawn in a war aimed at regime change or worse, a war meant to prolong Netanyahu’s political survival. Washington still has leverage. It should use it wisely.

Trump is sticking to coercive diplomacy for now, but he is getting boxed in by Bibi to wade into kinetic action. Coercive diplomacy at least till June 29 when the E.U.3 meet with the Iranian foreign minister. Trump will asses if the Iranians are folding or not.

Trump is boxed in: he cannot allow Netanyahu to win unilaterally and he cannot allow Netanyahu to lose the fight. For both reasons he is likely to go in.

May President Putin get the Supreme Leader on the phone one day….

We now know that “two weeks” is a cover story…..

It’s all about Trump getting a “win” and he is getting one.

This is how you declare you are a very junior partner…

A highly successful active measures operation by Israel….

We now know who has all the cards: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He plays Trump like a fiddle. President Putin would love to be Netanyahu but lacks the Air Force of the requisite capability.

A very nice neighborhood. A short drive from the White House washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…