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All the talk is about mid- and long-term trade policy and its ramifications. Meanwhile, a slowdown and supply shock are coming fast.

“Let me never fall into the vulgar mistake of dreaming that I am persecuted whenever I am contradicted.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson

An uncoerced exchange takes place for the parties' mutual gain. More exchanges, more gains. That others might not exchange or gain is no indictment of the exchanges that take place. Stopping willing exchangers from exchanging only stops the gain. It's destructive, nothing else.

This super cherry-picked market data has only happened five times since 1929. Each time, someone got a newsletter subscription out of it.

Re-reading End the Fed by Ron Paul and got a chuckle out of this part. It never ceases to amaze me how far and wide bad ideas can spread.

World debt has now officially crossed $300 TRILLION And still continues to climb aggressively This will not end well…

If you want to better understand money, I don’t know of a better resource than this incredible video by Lyn Alden.

Apparently, beliefs are downstream from identity.

I updated my list of Tim Ferriss Show episodes that shaped my thinking. Four new additions: Philip Goff, Craig Mod, Jon Batiste, and Uncle Jerry. Naval, Gaiman, Pressfield, and others still stand. Tim Ferriss—thank you for the archive of conversations. jamesvermillion.com/notebook/tim-t…

Many advisors hand off their marketing. I do the opposite. Writing, design, messaging - it’s part of my thinking. Part of why I started my own firm.

Not seeing much talk about front-loading. When that wears off, the data could deteriorate fast.

"I want to wear Nikes — I don't want to make them.” - the great economist Dave Chapelle

Bravo, Russ Roberts! The tariff episode is full of information, historical perspective, and interesting conversation about tariffs and trade. Very insightful! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eco…

New rule: You don’t get to say a place was “hollowed out” by globalization unless you’ve stepped foot in it. I call this the Dave Smith rule.

One of the coolest parts of learning is when ideas studied separately suddenly start converging. Happened to me with Popperian science and Austrian economics.

What do ants, markets, and language have in common? No central plan. No authority. Just simple rules, repeated until intelligence emerges. New Essay: The Ant and the Invisible Hand: On Emergent Intelligence jamesvermillion.com/notebook/ants

Issac Asimov on the convergence we should begin to think about. It is best to have this discussion now than after the fact.

COYP!

5 year old daughter: Dad, want to go bask in the sun? Me: Yes. Yes, I do. Thank you, Natalie. And thank you, sun.