Looking forward to reading this new paper via Peter Ireland Reminded me of the BIS note (Borio, Hofmann, Zakrajsek) that made a splash some time ago (bis.org/publ/bisbull67…) V cool to see deep work on the topic

Did a guest spot in Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal’s Odd Lots newsletter today: “When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?” bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

“Excuseflation” as coined by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal

“A world in which the dollar is falling might be appealing to the administration but a world in which the dollar is falling and long yields are rising is decidedly not”

For those tracking the repo market: I've created a public version of the second indicator from our Feds note on reserve monitoring, the estimated elasticity of repo spreads to changes in reserves. Swapping TGCR for MMF repo gives a close comparison. Link to the data below.

The second Global Rewire podcast "The Non-Dystopian Case for AI with Myron Scholes" is out now! creators.spotify.com/pod/show/ander…

One of the charts I recently threw together on US Treasury debt held by the public Depicts the post-pandemic “alligator jaws” of declining shares of price-insensitive debt buyers (official) vs rising shares of price-sensitive buyers (private)

This kind of foundational (and painstaking) data work is a big deal: Repo outstanding is much bigger than previous thought

New working paper with Patrick Horan ☘️ where we provide a new decomposition of the inflation surge. Using a New Keynesian model, we show most of the inflation was caused by aggregate demand shocks. We also do a Jason Furman decomposition with similar results (1/3) John Cochrane

1/5 Can political threats to central bank independence shift investor expectations in real time? Excited to share a new paper with Barry Eichengreen, Junxuan, and Zijie Wang using blockchain-based data from Polymarket. A short thread 👇 📄 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

New Paper with Tatjana Schulze: “Demystifying Trade Patterns in a Fragmenting World” imf.org/en/Publication… Transshipment, trade diversion, rerouting via “connector countries”— lots of terms floating around these days in the press, lots of narratives, and correlations.

My colleague J Clouse (ex Fed) raises an oft missed point on stablecoins: When cash users adopt stablecoins, the seigniorage revenues typically earned by the gov are transferred to stablecoin issuers This can have important welfare implications Link: anderseninstitute.org/stablecoins-th…

Thanks David Beckworth for having me on Macro Musings. What a privilege Interested in the global macroeconomics of stablecoins and crypto adoption? Check out our discussion Link: open.spotify.com/episode/5p9595…

My latest newsletter based on this week's podcast. nic carter Nick Anthony George Selgin Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 shorturl.at/oTbgh

Its probably spurious. For starters the BTC power law isnt robust to moving the sample period Most charts you see set a start date around Jan 3 2009 to equal 1 on the x-axis (BTC genesis block). Once you move the start date the log(time)-log(BTC) linear relationship disappears

Tariff revenue vs federal deficit

Hedge funds built the basis trade into a $1T+ position. Five years ago we used data across cash, futures, and repo markets to show why, and how it mattered in March 2020. That paper is now in press at JME! Free version below.

Narrow focus on assets paints an incomplete picture The opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing stables declines with rates. Interest earned per asset falls but quantity of assets grows Separately, stablecoin balance sheets also tend to expand w rising crypto prices