Bitcoin

ancient wisdom

Due the Power Law Exponential Decay we can expect a top for Bitcoin arcound the 160k if this cycle stays normal. Great tool to use as another confluence combined with the Power Law Exponential Decay Oscillator. Once we reach 80%+ this will count as another selling signal for me

#Seasonality is approaching.

Harnett BofA: “The railroad stocks were more than 60% of market cap in the late 1880s… why can't the Magnificent 7 get to the same level.” $MAGS

Post-election years tend to peak right about now and bottom in late October. No, this doesn't mean it has to happen this time, but some seasonal turbulence would be perfectly normal.

#spx $spx 5-year analogs with >50% correlation to last 5-years.

Not exact, but pretty close. This bull market is tracking the 2009-2020 bull quite closely, with a near bear market right at the same time.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin

90/90 days were quite rare in '80s and '90s, but we've clearly seen more of them since the GFC. Bottom line, the action Friday has to be filed away as another reason we are still in a major bull market. Any weakness should be fairly contained and would be an opportunity.

The 69% decline in the $VIX over the last 20 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=h98CbZ…

It's that #volatility time of the year.

S&P 500 returns by month for nearly 100 years. What do you notice?

The U.S., China, and Japan all have stock markets at record highs. At the same time, their economies face weak growth, layoffs, property crises, and stagnant wages. Markets are soaring while households struggle. What’s driving this split? (a thread)

I blame the people who were drawing squiggly lines on the plot. Did not account for that voodoo.

The year end chase has almost begun

If the current cyclical bull market ends up “blowing off” with an AI-driven melt-up, then it’s worth pondering what this would mean for the secular bull market.  By my count (with which most technicians disagree), the current secular regime began in 2009 and is now 16 years old.